Orange County Register

Bernie Williams wants to play again. This would almost certainly be not a good idea, but Sammy Sosa didn’t humiliate himself when he returned after a year off, and Troy Percival has a World Series ring because he returned, so who can tell.

All-time Angel Tim Salmon actually retired the same year (2006) at the same age (37) as Williams. Salmon was a better hitter his final season, with a 109 OPS+ (meaning he was 9 percent better than the average hitter) to Bernie’s 96 OPS+. If Bernie can return, could Salmon?

We can actually sort of figure this out. The PECOTA forecast model gives us Williams’ and Salmon’s most similar comps as of the last season they played; we could fast-forward three years to see how those guys all did in their age 40 seasons.

Williams’ comps:

1. Ruben Sierra: Playing for the Twins, had just 28 ABs and went .179/.273/.214, then retired.
2. Paul O’Neill: Out of baseball by age 40, though he had a pretty good final season at age 38: 104 OPS+ playing full-time.
3. Ken Griffey: The elder Griffey split 140 AB between the Reds and the Mariners, hitting .300/.353/.414 and sharing an outfield with his son. Pretty much matched that at age 41 in 85 AB, then hung ‘em up.
4. Hank Bauer: Also out of baseball, retiring after a 91 OPS+ at age 38.

Now for Salmon:

1. Cliff Johnson: Out of baseball, after an age 38 season very similar to Salmon’s age 37.
2. Joe Adcock: Destroyed pitchers in his final season — .273/.355/.576 — but also retired just one year later than Salmon did.
3. Don Baylor: Dipped a bit at 38, a bit at 39 and never made it back for 40.
4. Harmon Killebrew: Hung on as a below-average part-timer for a few years, but didn’t make it to 40, either.

Conclusion: Tim Salmon probably picked the right time to call it quits, while Bernie Williams’ son is the next Ken Griffey, Jr.

(Mark Whicker disagrees with this exercise, and here’s his response.)

More Angels news:

• Tex to D.C.?
• Trumbo, Ortega added to 40-man.
• Sabathia rumors.
• Stoneman salutes Mariners’ Wakamatsu.

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