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Report: Garland likely to walk
December 4th, 2008, 2:49 pm · 5 Comments · posted by sammiller
ESPN’s Rumor Central reports that pitcher Jon Garland is likely to turn down the Angels’ offer of arbitration and test the open market. 
Players who go to arbitration can’t take a pay cut of more than 20 percent, which would mean Garland is due to make at least $9.6 million if he stays in Anaheim. Garland is coming off the worst ERA of his career. His strikeouts continue to go down while his walks rise. On the other hand, he throws 200 innings a year of roughly league-average pitching, and those guys usually get multi-year deals. Even in a down season, he was worth a bit more than three wins over a replacement-level pitcher.
Given the soft free agent market that seems to be developing, it’s best for the Angels if he walks, and it’s probably best for Garland to get a multi-year deal now, before his skills deteriorate further.
But the Angels are almost in a no-lose situation here, aside from the uncertainty of it all. If Garland walks, they cut $12 million from last year’s budget and get a compensation draft pick, as Garland is a type-B free agent. If he accepts, they get a reliable pitcher who is likely to be worth about four wins more than a replacement pitcher next year — and for just a one-year contract. Then, next year, they get to do it all over again.
Garland has until Sunday to decide.
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The way to look at Garland is this: How many other fifth starters are better than he? Not too darn many. He’s a low strikeout guy, but that’s not bad with some guys _ he throws strikes, pitches to contact, keeps the game moving. What is bothersome is how he starts dithering with men on base, slowing the game to a crawl.
But let’s not sneeze at 200 innings. That’s 600 outs, after all. I got no idea about Anthony Ortega, and I know some other pitchers will be out there, but from what we saw out of Nick Adenhart last year, the Angels should hope Garland comes back.
While Mr. Whiker makes it seem like Garland should stay, I can’t shake the intangible uneasiness that I’ve had concerning him from the get-go. (It’s the same uneasiness that I had about Ramon Ortiz and Aaron Sele.) I didn’t like that we signed Garland and, all season long, I was underimpressed by his underperformance given his overpay. A friend of mine (a White Sox fan) says that Garland is good for 5 innings, not more. I don’t want a starter that is only good for 5 innings. I want someone better and I think we CAN do better. We certainly aren’t paying Garland fifth starter wages. If he’s performing at a fifth starter level and we’re paying him 3rd starter wages, we shouldn’t have him. I hope he finds work elsewhere.
Mark,
How many other 5th starters would be making $10M ? I think the Halos have bigger needs for that kind of coin than to have a 5th starter making that much. Besides, everything they do should be focused on winning in the playoffs. You only need 4 starters during the post season. I know you need to get there, but we can rotate the young guys through that spot and still make it.
Get Jake Peavy and move the first starting four down a notch and let Garland walk. Resign K-Rod and the rotation is better then last year and so is the bullpen with Arredondo getting more experience along with newcomer Jepson.
garland sucks anyways. id like to see the angels sign oliver perez.