Orange County Register

As a few small deals start to trickle in, we’re getting a sense of what to expect when the stars begin signing: First, an analysis of the baseball implications. Then, discussion about what it all means, in the larger business sense, and whether baseball is in a recession.

Shawn Hoffman of Squawking Baseball writes for Baseball Analysts today about how the uncertain larger economy could affect teams’ willingness to take risks. If the market shrinks, it’s not just that the teams have less money; it’s also that the player can only bring in so much revenue to justify his contract.

We’re seeing caution not just in the lack of signings, but in the type of deals that have been struck: A low-cost year of Bobby Howry; a low-cost year of Mike Hampton; a low-cost year of Russell Branyan. These are low-ceiling deals that give teams cost certainty.

Hoffman says we’ll see some shorter deals than we’re expecting. And, as he wrote earlier this week: “It’s the small- and mid-market teams that will probably pare back expectations for 2009.”

I don’t know how Arte Moreno’s investment portfolio looks right now, and it’s possible he’ll be as limited by the bear market as anyone. But as I wrote after the first signing of the year, this is starting to look like a good year to be a buyer. That’s even truer if the Angels — a top-5 market — are among the few teams willing to spend.

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