- NEWS
- SPORTS
- Lakers rout Thunder 2 hours & 50 minutes ago
- O.C. football: Updated playoff brackets
- USC at a crossroads 1 hour & 57 minutes ago
- Bruins have their sights set on victory 1 hour & 50 minutes ago
- BUSINESS
- ENTERTAINMENT
- LIFE
- TRAVEL
- OPINION
Was Garret Anderson clutch, and does it matter?
December 17th, 2008, 10:00 am · 14 Comments · posted by Sam Miller, The Orange County Register
The past few weeks, a pretty forceful defense of Garret Anderson has been showing up in our comments, over and over and over and over and over and over. It’s this: 
“The best hitter in the entire MLB and the Angels let him go…
“Garret Anderson’s Average in five key stats:
“Men on, 2 outs: 366
Men on 3rd < 2 outs: 480
RISP w/2 outs: 356 (Runners in Scoring Position)
RISP: .338 (Runners in scoring position)
Runners On: .362“Does this not prove that he is the best pure hitter in baseball?”
Let’s check it out. First, we have to answer two things:
- Did Garret Anderson come through in the clutch?
- And is Garret Anderson clutch?
The difference between those two questions is bigger than one might think. The first describes the situation, while the second describes the person. For example: If my hypothetical child’s life depends on my flipping a coin and landing heads three times in a row, and I do it, that was indisputably clutch. But it might also have been simple good luck or good timing. To say that I am clutch we would need more information. A larger sample size, for starters, and a good reason to believe I can consistently flip well when it matters.
The comments about Anderson show that, in 2008, GA was clutch. So let’s look for more information to see if he is clutch.
1) Did his 2008 performance have a large enough sample size to convince us it wasn’t random fluctuation?
The first stat offered is his excellent .366 batting average with runners on base and two outs. That’s in just 93 at bats. That falls well below the about-to-be-invented Randy Winn Threshold, which states (or will, once I finish this sentence) that through random fluctuations, good Major League players can do almost anything over the course of 200 at bats. It’s named for the Giants outfielder Winn, a career .288 hitter who was sent to 
San Francisco in a 2005 trade and hit .359/.391/.680 in 230 at bats with the Giants that season. You could have argued that the park suited him, or that the NL suited him, or that trolley cars suited him, or you could have simply waited and watched as he hit .262/.324/.396 the next year.
So 93 at bats isn’t particularly telling. If it were, we’d have to conclude that Garret Anderson should only play in May, July and September — he hit .343, .386 and .354 those months in 2008, and that he should never play in June, since he hit .188. We’d have to say he is one of the best hitters with runner on just first (.390 last year) and with a runner on just second (.366), but one of the worst with runners on first and second (.097). We’d say he should never be allowed to hit in tie games (.241), or in the second inning (.227), or against Seattle (.141). But, in fact, most of these curiosities happened simply because random events sometimes bunch together in curious ways. To say these factors caused Anderson to hit better or worse requires much larger sample sizes. Same goes with the “clutch” situations cited in the comments.
2) Does he have a long history of being clutch, to bolster the 2008 performance?
Some of the splits cited aren’t available for every year, so let’s look at the big one, runners in scoring position. In 2008, he hit .338. The previous five seasons:
- 2007: .262
- 2006:.303
- 2005:.327
- 2004: .277
- 2003:.340
And, career:.295. Overall, he’s a .296 career hitter.
Sometimes he’s clutch, sometimes he’s apparently a choke artist, but average these out and he’s about the same player with runners in scoring position as in other situations. So, 2008 aside, we can’t say he’s especially clutch.
…
…
To answer the question, then, we can say that unless Garret Anderson has figured out the secret of clutch, he is not the best “pure hitter in baseball,” and his stats in those situations listed shouldn’t make a big difference in the Angels’ decision about whether to bring him back.
That’s not to say Angels’ fans shouldn’t be grateful for GA — whether he can repeat his performance in the clutch next year or not, every one of those runs he drove in last year counted, and for that he was very valuable in 2008. And for that, commenter TJ is right that his 2008 performance will be difficult to replace.
Previous articles:
- GA and Scott Boras.
- The unluckiest Angels.
- Could Burrell handle first base?
- Big Mo vs. Little Sarge: A race to the bottom.
- Bring back Tim Salmon?
14 Comments
Leave a Reply
-
ADVERTISEMENT
-
ADVERTISEMENT
GA was clutch in 2002 when it counted. Overall I think we love the guy and always will. Sure we got upset when it looked like he did not hustle in LF….but he makes the game look easy. I would love to have GA back and sharing DH and left field with Manny. Just get him at the hometown discount and let him end his career here with another WS ring or two or three.
GA One of the best Angels I have ever seen. He did not Hustle in LF, well Joey D. never dove for a ball either compare the errors. Clutch Yes, when it meant everything he did it!
Bring Back GA!
Ummm where is the 02′ stats?????? Didnt he have better numbers then the cheater Barry Bonds? …. i sort of remember a shot hit down the first base line in game seven and scored three runs? That wasnt GA was it???? ohhhhh it was … i almost forgot …
GA is a simple player he makes plays when the game is on the line …. he wont cheat you and he wont hurt you … GA has been the best player we have had the last eight years hands down … imagine the type of player he would have been for us if he didnt get hurt in 06′? now he is starting to get healthy and feel good again and we are gonna let him walk???? So gary matthews and tori hunter and willits get at-bats …. haha your kidding me right?
GA is clutch that’s for sure. Those stats there lie. You need to look solely at 8th and 9th inning at bats for clutch. A team can have a runner on 1st in the top of the 6th and be up by 8 runs. There is that relaxation. You have to look at bottom of the 8th or 9th or even the top, down 1 run or up by 2 for example… game is tight and close, how does he respond? THAT my friends is clutch. So, to whomever started this blog, lets be rid of this blog, go back and look for what I just mentioned above and we’ll debate his ability to be clutch.
Joseph,
In Garret Anderson’s career, he has hit .299 (with a .769 OPS) in “late and close situations.” Overall, he has hit .296 with a .796 OPS for his career. So no real difference there, either.
GA cleared the bases in the 8th inning of Game 7 in the World Series!!!!! Yes, he is clutch. Always has been. Professional hitter and class act. THANKS, GARRETT!!!!!……please come back to Anahein. What a great representative for the organization. Oh, and THANKS FOR THE WS RING. Matt
Third inning, Matt.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ANA/ANA200210270.shtml
I agree it’s difficult to measure clutch hitting. A hitter having a good year is likely to also be good in RISP situations and the opposite is also true.
But just because it can’t be measured doesn’t mean clutch hitting doesn’t exist. There is an art to approaching an AB in a big situation. The best hitters don’t overextend, don’t guess, and stay within themselves. A perfect example was Jermaine Dye in Game 4 of the ‘05 World Series, when he dribbled a 8-hopper for a Series-clinching single. He didn’t try to do too much. He was secure in his abilities because he’d been there so many times.
For that reason, it’s better to have veterans up in big situations. I really didn’t care if Garret was 0-for-5 or 0-for-20. If there was a man on second in the eighth and a righthander was up, he was the man you wanted to see.
But let’s look at what “clutch” means. No, it’s not always in the 8th or 9th inning.
If the Mets are pitching Johan Santana, and David Wright comes up with men on second and third in the first inning, two outs and a 1-0 lead, well, that’s a clutch AB. If he drives them both in, the Mets are ahead 3-0 and Santana is practically a lock to win _ especially in ‘09, with Frankie Rodriguez in the pen.
If Adam Dunn comes up in the ninth and his team is down 3 runs and he hits a solo homer and his team loses by 2, that’s not necessarily a clutch AB, although you never know how a run will tilt a ballgame.
Again, RISP is a good stat as far as it goes. Like every other stat.
Reguardless if GA’s clutch or not, the guy has lost his spark. Yeah his numbers were up in 2008, but you can see from the rest of his career that he’s a pretty average hitter.
Yes, he’s a class act for Anaheim. Yes, he should end his career in Anaheim (I don’t care what they say, I call this team the Anaheim Angels). Yes, I’m grateful for being able to watch him every season since I’ve been an Angels fan.
But if he’s so clutch where were his big hits in October when the Angels desperately needed somebody–ANYBODY to get the team out of the funk? He’s the senior on the team, and it just seems like he doesn’t act like it sometimes.
I’ll miss him, but welcome to a new era of Angels Baseball.
Now PLEASE! Sign Teixeira!!
GA will always be remembered as the guy you want in there to make something happen no matter what the situation was. He was the most laid back baseball player in history. That was his style and it worked for him. I hope he becomes an Angel front office guy.
I have nothing against Garret Anderson, except for his lack of hustle sometimes. I still defend him against the haters. BUT……. Let’s not forget about who was really clutch in 2002, or at least it seemed. I have not seen the stats, but I’ll take Scott Spiezio in the clutch in 2002 before Anderson or Glaus. Thank you very much!
Mr. Whicker,
Re: GA Comparison with Other “Big Name” Hitters
First of all, thank you for acknowledging my post during these extremely lonely times as the GA Haters (friends and co-workers) are coming out in droves to attack me with their very limited perspectives. I turned to the stats when the Angels let GA go because I needed to understand why they did what they did; especially when I heard rumors that they were going to bring in other 36 year old left fielders.
You (and the others) have brought up very interesting points. There is one POV that is missing- How is GA compared with the other players? This was my objective when I started this crusade and the validation jumped off the page at me. Keep in mind, these are statistical averages for the 2008 season- only (what have you done for me lately) and I am not taking into consideration where these other batters are in the line-up or how many times they were presented these situational opportunities in 2008.
The comparisons jump off the page to me…I must be completely biased because the Haters just won’t flinch when I give them these stats:
Men on 2 outs: .366
Men on 3rd < 2 outs: 480
RISP w/2 outs: 356 (Runners in Scoring Position)
RISP: .338 (Runners in scoring position)
Runners on: .362
GA’s Average: .380 (Please note that GA batted in 4 or 5 different spots in 2008)
Compared to:
M. Teixeira: .327
M. Ramirez: .368
C. Jones: .325
A. Rod .287
I. Suzuki: .287
V. Guerrero: .277
I cannot find another hitter in the league that has a higher average in these 5 crucial stats. I think this is what sets apart an average .300 hitter from (at the very least) an above average .300 hitter. Then again, as you have proven, it is all perspective, even in the statistical world.
GA good luck! I really hope you take another teams offer. The way the Angels Organization treated this guy showed no class. This guy provide leadership and showed what it took to be a Role Model. Angels good luck replacing RBI’s because thats what he does best. I can’t wait to see him collect his 3000 hit with his signature double down the line, its a shame it wont be all with one team. Theres only a handfull left Chavez A’s, Chipper braves, jeter yankees, ——– Angels. Hey Arte you still have a chance to make things right. Don’t let Reagins screw things up like losing Casey for 55 games and no ring.
Showed no class? Who are you to determine how much “class” the organization showed when they made the decision? Were you in on the conference call? Give me a break. The dude’s contract expired, the team looked at things objectively and decided not to invest in a leftfielder that is closer in age to 40 than 30. And in the teams defense, they have decided not to go after ANY aging outfielders this offseason. Maybe GA has another 2-3 decent years left (sorry, but hes been merely decent the last 2 years), but the odds are hes going to continue to decline, and the team didn’t feel like risking millions to find out.
Thanks for the memories, Garret. From your fantastic rookie season in 95, to the double in game 7 of 02, to completely owning All Star Weekend in 03, and for putting the smack down with 10 (!!) RBI at Yankee stadium in 07. One of the sweetest swings in the history of the franchise. Not every player is going to have a story book ending like Tim Salmon. Like Finley, Percival, and Erstad before him, its not always in the cards to finish your career with the team that raised you. Salmon showed that he wanted to remain an Angel, and accepted a reduced role (and salary) to make it happen. Garret is not going to do that, nor should he if someone is willing to give him a better offer. Don’t forget, he did hire Boras after he became a free agent, so obviously loyalty wasn’t the first thing on his mind, either.