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Is Juan Rivera worth $12 million?
December 19th, 2008, 1:29 pm · 14 Comments · posted by Sam Miller, The Orange County Register
What is a year of Juan Rivera worth? The Angels have reportedly signed him to a three-year deal worth a bit more than $4 million per year, and unless he beats most projections, it’s less than that.
Let’s look at three forecast models that have predicted what Rivera is likely to do. While there’s always a big margin of error to these things, it’s nice when the projections are similar to each other, as they are in Rivera’s case: 
ZiPS: 325 at bats, .268/.313/.446, 13 home runs.
Bill James: 317 at bats, .281/.327/.467, 13 home runs.
Marcel: 313 at bats, .272/.323/.450, 13 home runs.
With the obvious caveat that projections don’t win baseball games, let’s for the sake of our afternoon assume the middle projection of these three, the Marcel line*, is accurate. How much is that player worth?
As it turns out, Juan Rivera’s 2009 would almost exactly equal the league average hitter in 2008. That’s quite valuable in a second baseman, but not quite as valuable for a left fielder or a DH. In fact, over an entire season, a full-time DH who hits at the league average is worth about 2.5 runs more than a readily available replacement player. Rivera is unlikely to play 162 games, so we could settle on a number between 0 and 2.5 runs.
What if he plays the outfield? A league average left fielder or right fielder is worth about 12.5 runs more than replacement level over a full season, so if Rivera got the 313 at bats projected, he’d be about half that. But he’s not much of an outfielder, and last year gave back about seven runs in part time play in the outfield. Historically he had been a bit better, but we’re still talking about a value of around a fourth of a win, if that.
Teams typically spend about $5 million per win on free agents, so that would mean Rivera is worth only about $1.25 million a year. If we use Bill James’ more optimistic projection, it’d be about $2 million.
That’s if we believe our projections. If you prefer to recall Juan Rivera as the guy who hits for pop whether he’s healthy or not, who is just 30 years old and two years removed from a very valuable season, I’ve got no problem with that. As Keith Law wrote a couple months ago, Rivera has a shot to outperform his contract.
Tony Reagins says Rivera is going to get “significant at bats and playing time.” That means this probably isn’t the off season Angels fans were hoping for.
The Times notes that Rivera, Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Matthews, Jr. can now share three positions: Left field, right field and designated hitter. But if Brandon Wood is in the lineup, then Chone Figgins goes into the mix, too. And if Sean Rodriguez keeps hitting in Triple A, he’ll force himself in there at some point in 2009. Furthermore, is this the last hitter the Angels plan to sign? If they get Teixeira, Kendry Morales has to go somewhere — left, right or DH. If they don’t get Teixeira, nearly every good hitter left on the market — Abreu, Bradley, Dunn, Burrell, Ramirez, Garret Anderson — is a corner outfielder or DH.
*The Marcel projection “uses three years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.”
14 Comments
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Personally I think Rivera is a steal at that value. His stats are a little low since he has been played sporadically which has not worked out so well for him (like most players). But when he gets consistent at-bats I don’t doubt that he will be doing better than Hunter and Matthews. Compare those salaries!
Rivera is capable of a .280 25 90 season if he plays full time. Signing him means to me that we pass on Manny and are gonna sign Teixeira.
A Teixeira, Vlad, Hunter, Rivera 3-6 isn’t bad at all.
With Garret Anderson Either gone to free agency or a reduced role.This makes good sense. Rivera Will get back to form he was in prior to breaking his leg.
This is yet another example of where all of these projections are misleading. Who’s the true Juan Rivera ? The guy that hit 25 HRs in about 300 ABs in 2006 ? Or the guy that rode the pine in 2008 because Scioscia felt obligated to play the $10M GMJ…and consequently, didn’t get reall playing time until the second half of the year (when he hit 13 HRs in 88 games I might add). Rivera will get significant playing time in 2009 and will hit more than 20 HRs with more than 80 RBI. Not bad for $4M.
First, this means “good bye” to Garret Anderson. With Boras as his agent, he’s looking for a deal that he won’t get from the Angels. My bet is that he lands in Tampa with Joe Maddon or potentially a deal with the Dodgers if they don’t sign Manny.
Second, signing Juan Rivera tells me we are not going to bid on Manny. Even if Manny is a part-time DH and part-time left fielder, we would have too many outfielders, just like 2008. The depth was nice but we were under-utilizing talent for what we had to pay. Our outfield is complete in my mind.
Third, my gut would say this suggests the Angels feel very comfortable about their position on Teixeira. The timing of this deal is odd to me given the news that transpired last night about the Sox backing off.
Fourth, this could also very well suggest that a trade is imminent, likely with the Padres. If we don’t get Teixeira, they quickly pull the trigger on a deal for Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez, which will cost quite a few players. My guess on that deal would include Brandon Wood, Reggie Willits, Nick Adenhart, Kevin Jepsen and Kendry Morales…..and probably someone else like Freddy Sandoval or Sean Rodriguez.. It makes sense to do it, assuming that would even come close to getting it done.
Fifth, who in the heck came up with those projections for plate appearances??? My bet is that they are at least 150 off from reality. No way Juan Rivera signed this deal with the Angels to appear in 80 games.
Anyway, this deal was pretty telling to me and frankly, I think Juan will outperform this contract by a large margin.
Projections don’t take injuries into account. Those projections are skewed because of two injury-plagued seasons. Rivera is capable of hitting much better than that.
Also, Rivera isn’t going to play LF every game. He’ll be a DH half the time. That’ll limit his defensive deficiencies.
Here are my comments to that question: NO!!!!!
Also, I think it’s time to move Vlad Guerrero to full time DH. Unless he gets some new bionic knees!!!
I believe the signing of Rivera does mean GA is out. Why go to the free agent market to bring back your own players? Love GA. Love his swing. Rivera, Vlady, GMJ need to take one from GA and level out their swings. They will all improve their stats. They should all improve this year anyway since they are all coming off injuries and should get more healthy with time. Don’t forget Escobar. He may be one of the best closers in the game if he can get healthy.
hey sam, i’m relatively new to these projections. How reliable are they? Have past projections been measured for accuracy? For instance, have the bill james numbers been shown to be within 10% of their projections for, say 75% of the time? Or do we just look at these numbers because spring training is still a long ways away?
Sam, I am very glad that you have joined this blog.
Who cares what Juan Rivera is worth, he’s a pro who never cries. He’s a true team player. Most players who are treated as poorly as he has been would become clubhouse cancers but not Juan. I say this deal is a no brainer. If given a chance to play most of the season I think he’ll do well.
What if Rivera bats .257 with 25 + hr and knocks in 80 + runs for 4 mill. a year. And the Yank’s Tex bats .310 with 30 + hr and knocks in 100 + runs for 22.5 mill. a year. What’s the better deal ?? Now what if Revera bats .290 with 30 + hr and knock’s in 100 + runs for 4 mill. and the Yank’s Tex bats .290 with 30 + hr and 90+ runs knocked in. Whats a better deal ?? If is the biggest little word. Good job for signing Rivera, lets see what he can do in a full healthy season. Go get Peavy !! and Manny you have the free money. Roll the dice. Manny’s only one of the greatest post season players in the history of the game of “BASEBALL” ever !! Just rotate the out field of Manny, Rivera, and Vlady at DH. Matthews and Willits can back or for rest. What a lineup.
1. Isturis/Aybar ss
2. Kendrick sb
3. Vlady rf
4. Manny dh
5. Hunter cf
6. Rivera lf
7. Moralas fb
8. Woods/Figgy tb
9. Nappli c
Not a bad lineup, You can change it around how you wish.