Earl noted this morning last night that Brian Fuentes will pitch in the World Baseball Classic, which raises some 
concerns over at the excellent new Angels blog 3 Days of Cryin’.
Should it? Probably not in Fuentes’ case or in the case of reliever Scot Shields, and perhaps so for the earlier announcement that John Lackey would pitch as a starter for the team.
Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) looked at how World Baseball Classicists were doing six weeks into the 2006 season, the first (and so far only) season of the tournament.
There were 26 starting pitchers involved, who in 2005 had posted a cumulative 4.05 ERA, and who the projection system PECOTA had predicted would combine for a 4.26 ERA in 2006. Instead, in the first month, the group had a cumulative 5.49 ERA, in more than 700 combined innings.
The writer, Nate Silver, found a similar trend in the lockout season of 1995, when offense was notably up after a late start to the season. “There is some precedent to the notion that any kind of awkward start to the season tends to help the bats,” he wrote.
Why no concern for Fuentes?
“The relievers have emerged relatively unscathed–sixteen of the thirty-two relievers in our study have outperformed their PECOTA, and sixteen have underperformed it,” said Silver.
Incidentally, Fuentes pitched in the 2006 WBC, and was significantly better than PECOTA forecast, both in the first six weeks of the season and for the entire year.
As the rosters get announced in the next few weeks, my hunch is some players will be criticized for opting out, and that’s not really fair. Even if playing in the WBC only affects starting pitchers for, say, the first two months of the season, a 1.25-run difference in ERA over that time would be worth about 10 runs, or one win, over 70 innings. Deciding whether to participate is arguably a million-dollar decision for these players, and potentially a crucial factor in his team’s pennant chances. Before anybody gets judged unpatriotic for skipping out, let’s remember that a man has many loyalties in this world.
Previous Major League news:
- Spring training tickets on sale this weekend
- Smoltz to Red Sox likely
- If no more signings, Angels may trade mid-season
- Giambi back to A’s
- Guerrero and Manny? Can’t be done
- Scioscia gets extension
- There goes Milton Bradley — who’s left?
- Angels resolutions for 2009
- Player profile; Brian Fuentes
Sam: When Dave Winfield hit for the cycle as an Angel in Kansas City — a 5 for 5 performance at age 40 — he got the triple in the 8th off infielder turned mopup pitcher Bill Pecota. Is this the PECOTA you refer to? He was a decent reserve infielder but not much of a pitcher. … BTW covering Winfield in his too-brief Angels days was one of my career highlights, and I will never forget that night in KC.
[...] Angels’ pitchers in WBC a concern? - Angels blog - OCRegister.com January 8, 2009 at 3:58 pm [...]
Earl: It is! It’s named after him, for real. The acronym stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, but I believe Nate Silver, who developed it, has acknowledged the acronym was forced to fit the name.
That is too funny about Pecota. This is really good research by the way. Does Baseball Prospectus breakdown how the WBC effected hitters stats as well? I’d like to know why someone like Chipper Jones is playing…
Sam — Good knowledge! The off season would be a dreary world without you.
hopefully once the world baseball classic gains prestige players will want to play for their country. kinda like in soccer.
[...] Miller did a nice job researching and explaining the effect on both starters and relievers pitching in the WBC during 2006. His research suggested [...]