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Examining Vlad Guerrero’s Hall of Fame case
January 9th, 2009, 12:01 pm · 19 Comments · posted by Sam Miller, The Orange County Register
Earl suggests Vladimir Guerrero might be the first player to go into the Hall of Fame with an Angel cap on. Mark says Guerrero needs a few more solid seasons. I say it’s Keltner time! 
The Keltner List is an extremely subjective guide to answering the question: Is the player we’re talking about a Hall of Famer? It’s 15 questions, there’s no scoring system, and it’s not meant to settle the argument, but merely enlighten it.
For the sake of the discussion — is Guerrero good enough to get in right now? — we’ll hypothesize that he never has another good season. Hey, it happens to more great players than you’d think.
- Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball? Well, he won an MVP award but I don’t think anybody suggested he was the very best player for a sustained period of time. Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols would have led that discussion for most of the decade, and Guerrero has clearly been passed by Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright and Pujols now. So no.
- Was he the best player on his team? Almost without fail. While he was putting up MVP-quality seasons in Montreal, his nearest competition was Jose Vidro. He was the best Angel until 2008, when the Angels traded for Mark Teixeira. So yes.
- Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position? Yes, and yes. So far this decade, here are how he has ranked in OPS among all Major League right-fielders: 3, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1. No other player has topped the list twice during that span. Absolutely yes.
- Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? Sure. He hit .363/.424/.726 in September of 2004, when the Angels defeated the A’s by one game. In the final game of the season, in Oakland, he tied the game with a two-run homer in the sixth innings, with the Angels ultimately winning the game (and division) by one run. For his career, he was involved in six pennant races, and in all Septembers he hit .331/.402/.589 — way above Hall of Fame numbers. So, yes.
- Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime? Still to be determined. He’s past his prime a little right now and still gets MVP votes, but he has gone from about a five-six win player to a three-win player. He’s likely to be phased into a DH role, which will either sap his value further or extend his career as a valuable hitter. We’ll see.
- Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame? No. He has accumulated 81.5 career wins above replacement level, according to Baseball Prospectus, and his seven best years total 55.5 WARP. Ron Santo blows those numbers away (115.5/81.6), as does Tim Raines (118.7/70.7). From the same era, Mark McGwire (100.6/63.3) tops him for now, though it is likely not performance that keeps McGwire out. So, no.
- Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame? Well, five of the 10 players who are most similar through Age 32 (according to Baseball Reference) are, and three more (Manny Ramirez, Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey, Jr.) are mortal locks. His comparables through 32 include four of the very best hitters of the post-War era: Mays, Frank Robinson, Bonds, Ramirez. If he quit now, four of his 10 most similar career comps are in the Hall. Push.
- Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? His rate stats certainly do. His OPS+ — which compares a player against his era — is 147, which (for now) compares favorably to recent right fielders inducted, including Reggie Jackson (139), Dave Winfield (130) and Tony Gwynn (132). His counting stats are below automatic benchmarks — he has 2,136 hits and 392 home runs. On the other hand, just seven of the right fielders in the Hall have more home runs than him right now. And voters seem prepared to induct Jim Rice this year and Andre Dawson in the new few years. Neither reached the automatic milestones, and neither had rate stats that compared well to Guerrero’s. A few years as even an average hitter would make this a no-brainer, but even in the worst-case scenario I think the answer is yes.
- Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? None that I can think of. He played in a pitcher’s park, and two of the three parks in his division were extreme pitchers’ parks, so give him some extra credit on that.
- Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in? By WARP, Dwight Evans probably edges him for now, with 104.9 career wins and 54.0 for his seven peak years. Dawson (108.7/61.3) tops him, though I expect Dawson will have made it by the time Guerrero is up for a vote. Both are credited with significantly more defensive value than Guerrero. Indeed, Guerrero’s defense — 80 runs below average for his career, according to BP — is his biggest strike. No.
- How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? He did win an MVP award, four times finished in the top 5 and has received votes every year except his rookie season. The Internet Baseball Awards voters have more or less mirrored the official BBWAA vote. He probably didn’t deserve to win any seasons other than 2004, when he did win.
- How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame? He has played in eight, and a case could be made for him each of the past 11 seasons. Honestly, I have no idea whether most players who played in this many go to the Hall, and I don’t care. Given how many teams there are now, and given the one-player-per-team rule, there’s just no apples-to-apples comparison with previous generations. But eight seems like plenty. Call it a yes.
- If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? Sure. He was the best player on a team that won four divisions in five years. Yes.
- What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? He helped introduce Wilton Guerrero into the league, but otherwise, unless I’m forgetting something, no.
- Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? Sure. Never a whiff of scandal, even in the everybody-good-must’ve-been-injecting-radioactive-isotopes-into-his-butt era. In fact, Angels fans couldn’t have asked for a better behaved superstar. “Drives a Hummer, which I’m not too crazy about,” a co-worker tells me, but that’s not confirmed. So yes.
So is he in? Is he close? Is it still a ways to go? I say he needs a bit more to deserve it, but no matter what happens he’s in, because the guys who are going to be voting are the same ones who perennially vote for him for MVP. They’re making his case every year.
How close is Vladimir Guerrero to the Hall of Fame?
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19 Comments
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i say he’s close… very, very close.
if Vladdy can keep putting up good (if not great) numbers for another 3-4 years, he’s in without a doubt.
“He has hit at least .300 with 25 or more home runs in 11 straight seasons, joining Lou Gehrig as the only two players in major league history to accomplish that feat.” (http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/players/playerpage/7669)
I think his amazing consistency has to be considered. When players can be significantly linked to baseball legends, they tend to get into the Hall.
I say yes. Vlad has a bad year and it’s still better than most players had. Hopefully the surgery on his knee will help him this year.
no, he has no plate discipline and the number dont add up.
Can one imagine what his numbers would be if he could only learn not to swing at the pitch that is three feet off the plate low and away?! I have seen games where the pitchers don’t throw balls anywhere near the strike zone to vlad and still walk away with strike outs.
I konw that there is no way Manny can be an Angel because it is important not to reward his behavior in Boston, but just thinking about Vladdy and Manny in the lineup…. oh my
“no, he has no plate discipline and the number dont add up.”
What numbers don’t add up? Vlad drives me crazy too with his hacking at garbage but it doesn’t mean he isn’t a Hall of Famer. All players have their problems.
Vlad should make..IF he has a relatively typical decline phase…his career counting stat totals, given 4-5 more years will put him over.
A big HOWEVER,
I believe he will not have a typical decline phase.
1. He is the most fundamentally unsound player I have seen. He still hasn’t learned the strike zone, hasn’t figured out the what the 3rd base coach means when he’s holding his arms up, overthrows the cutoff man EVERY time, and throws to the wrong base almost every time. Fundamentally unsound players always seem to hit the wall sooner, once the physical gifts are gone, there’s nothing left. Think Kareem Abdul Jabbar, and Daryll Dawkins.
2. I suspect, given where he’s from, he is already older than 32 by a couple of years. Just Miguel Tejada, Junior Felix, Felix Jose, Fernando Valenzuela..and just about every Latin player ever.
3 His knees/legs are going/gone. He’ll soon have almost no lower body strength to keep even remotely balanced at the plate. It won’t be to much longer we’ll see him falling over himself swinging at pitches 3 feet away.
Some players are often way ‘better’ than their stats, others way worse.
Our last RF’er, Tim Salmon was a far, far better player than his stat line says. I saw most every game Timmy played, and I never saw him misjudge a ball, throw to the wrong base, or miss a cutoff man.
Vladdy is just the opposite, he is not as good a player as his stats say. If he had half of Timmy’s discipline, he might have been the greatest, instead of just one of the greatest.
11 seasons with 25 or more HRs and at least .300! LG is in the Hall and the pitching was not as good back then as it is today.
Wake up people- this is a lock.
11 seasons with 25 HR or more will be a “lock” when it becomes the “Hall of above average”
“no, he has no plate discipline and the number dont add up.”
That’s quite a convincing argument you got going there, Brian. As for myself, I also don’t think too highly of Mr Donnie “Baseball” Mattingly: He ran slower than a crippled snail, and his “landing strip” stache (during his glory years) was uncanningly similar in shape and size to his eyeblacks, forming a rather peculiar triplicity.
Sorry, Brian…. I was actually referring to Todd.
Under those criteria, the Bobby-Grich-For-Hall-Of-Fame movement, a favorite cause of the Fantasy Leaguers, doesn’t get a whole lot of traction.
HELL yes!!
His knee is better since surgery and he has lost weight. Cant wait to see how he does
Just to clarify, and not that it’s a big deal….but Guerrero has done quite enough for my Hall of Fame vote. My original comment to Earl was that I’m not sure he’s done enough for the increasingly finicky BBWAA Hall of Fame voters, who have never voted in anyone unanimously, if you can believe that, and probably would come up with some reason to keep Babe Ruth out today _ too fat, didn’t get hit with enough pitches, some kind of garbage.
Hard to keep a player who has been an MVP and arguably one of the ten best players in his time out of the hall. Not a sure fire first ballot hall of famer but she should get in. BY the way who are the two voters who never put anyone in first ballot. Because if they say Rickey Henderson shouldnt be in the hall, they should lose all voting privledges.
Here’s one voter who already wrote that he didn’t vote for Rickey Henderson, Calvin:
http://www.gvnews.com/articles/2008/12/10/sports/sports03.txt
“1. He is the most fundamentally unsound player I have seen. He still hasn’t learned the strike zone, hasn’t figured out the what the 3rd base coach means when he’s holding his arms up, overthrows the cutoff man EVERY time, and throws to the wrong base almost every time. Fundamentally unsound players always seem to hit the wall sooner, once the physical gifts are gone, there’s nothing left. Think Kareem Abdul Jabbar, and Daryll Dawkins.”
There was a time I felt this way too, just because it seemed obvious. But the more I think about it, its completely off base. As players skills diminish, their numbers decline, regardless if they’re the most fundamentally sound player around or completely wreckless and relying solely on their talent. Vlad can hit, bottom line. Hes been performing at a very high level for over a decade. Yeah, he swings at bad pitches, but the guy knows how to get his hits, and can kill mistakes, even if his means of getting those hits don’t fall under the ideal skill set of a major league slugger. His body is breaking down, and as he gets older he’ll become more and more a one-dimensional player. But that one dimension is hitting. Running through a stop sign or missing the cut off man won’t change that hes a phenomenal hitter. Tim Salmon was mentioned earlier, and yes, he was very fundamentally sound. But that didn’t help him much later in his career when his body broke down and he just couldn’t post the numbers he used to. You know who else is fundamentally sound? Steve Finley. And he dropped off a cliff, as I’m sure we all remember. You think David Eckstein is going to play into his 40’s? Just because a player knows what to do on the field doesn’t mean they can execute once their skills are fading.
As much as we’d like to think that certain atheletes are smarter and have better fundamentals, those skills do not fight the aging process. A player in decline is going to struggle because his body is letting him down. No amount of fundamentals is going to help him, at least not until he enters coaching.
Vlad is most definitely a Hall of Famer. However, he will probably go in as an Expo.