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Is Dunn deal really going to be so low?

January 19th, 2009, 3:50 pm · 4 Comments · posted by Sam Miller, The Orange County Register

Via MLB Trade Rumors, The Washington Post quotes an agent who says he doesn’t think Adam Dunn will get more than $5 million per year, which would qualify as the shock of the off-season. (Well, maybe this is more shocking.)

Dunn’s value has dropped in real life and among statheads this offseason, but I don’t see any reasonable math that suggests he’s worth only $5 million a year. The Marcel and Chone projections have him worth about 20 runs above average as a hitter, so as a DH he’d be worth about 2.25 wins, or about $10-$11 million. Put him in left field and he gives 15 runs back, which makes him worth about 1.75 wins, or about $8 million. Two other projection systems — Bill James and ZiPS — are much rosier about his offense, and give him an extra win. That would put his value somewhere around $13-$15 million for this season, depending on how bad his defense is.

If this agent is correct — that nobody is going to offer Dunn more than $5 million — then any team with a hole at a corner outfield spot or designated hitter should be outside his agent’s door with a $5.01 million contract offer. I would consider the Angels (along with about 15 other clubs) to be one of those teams. There’s just no reason that he should slip into the Washington Nationals’ laps like this. Even if he doesn’t like baseball all that much.

Disclaimer: Every off-season rumor should be considered a negotiating tactic, speculation or fabrication until proven otherwise. But what would an agent have to gain from depressing the market? It’s strange, strange.

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 4 Comments

  • Mark Whicker, ocregister.com says:
    January 19, 2009 at 4:24 pm

    Right, Sam, everybody in the front offices of baseball is out to lunch and you’re the keeper of the truth.

    Or maybe they think Dunn is a one-dimensional base-clogging slug who hasn’t struck out fewer than 164 times in any of the past five years. Remove his 40 home runs and he scored 39 runs last year. And walked 122 times. That’s amazing. At least, when he was stranded on second, he didn’t have to walk very far to get out to left field.

    But, yeah, at $5M he’s a good investment. And one heck of a Fantasy League hoss.

    Post Reply
  • sammiller says:
    January 19, 2009 at 4:31 pm

    So then they probably think Ryan Howard is a one-dimensional base-clogging slug who hasn’t struck out fewer than 181 (!) times in the past three years. Remove his 58 home runs and he scored 46 times in 2006, and he walked 108 times. That’s amazing. And I bet you’d have voted that guy MVP of the league.

    Strikeouts tell you what type of hitter a guy is, not how good he is. One-dimensional is wrong — On base and power are two dimensions. The 40 home runs count. The walks count. Good fantasy players tend to be good real players, unless they only steal bases.

    And, finally, you can’t call me an idiot and then in the last paragraph agree with me.

    I think that covers it all.

    Post Reply
  • Andre Mouchard says:
    January 19, 2009 at 4:38 pm

    i’m thinking any argument against a guy that includes the phrase “remove his 40 home runs” needs to be re-thought…

    Post Reply
  • Bryan Harvey says:
    January 19, 2009 at 9:57 pm

    Whicker– Where do you live? I want to egg your house.

    Post Reply

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