Orange County Register

I wrote yesterday that Adam Dunn is half the player Manny Ramirez is, but when Baseball Prospectus releases its PECOTA projections next month it’ll say the difference is far smaller than that.

BP writer Jay Jaffe dropped some PECOTA tidbits into his story today (subscribers only). According to him, PECOTA projects Manny Ramirez to be 4.3 wins above average, the value of a good (but not elite) player. By comparison, Manny was worth 7.8 WARP in 2008, and a combined 7.3 WARP in the previous two seasons combined.

Adam Dunn, meanwhile, projects to be worth 3.8 WARP, and Bobby Abreu is forecast for 3.2 WARP.

That makes PECOTA either bullish on Dunn and Abreu or pessimistic on Ramirez compared to other projection systems, which peg Manny as one to three wins more valuable than the second-tier guys. Nobody wins or loses the MVP because of a forecast, but it’s another reason to think Manny will be way overpaid at anything over $20 million per year.

Jaffe also writes, “PECOTA loathes Kendry Morales (.253/.295/.389),” for what that’s worth.

PECOTA compares players to all historical major leaguers to find the most similar comparisons, then uses those players’ careers to forecast.

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