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The Vlad approach
June 22nd, 2009, 8:14 am · 30 Comments · posted by Sam Miller, The Orange County Register
Bisheff asks how long Vlad can keep batting cleanup:
Just what the Angels need, huh? Yet another singles hitter. Seriously, Guerrero has 125 at-bats now and has six extra-base hits. Six! And only one of the six was a home run.
That’s not a cleanup hitter. It is a seventh or eighth hitter.
It’s not even a seventh or eighth hitter, not unless he’s playing in the middle of the infield of catching. From a DH or corner outfielder, it’s strictly bench material, not that the Angels really have that option.
I pointed out last week that Guerrero is swinging at far more pitches outside the strike zone this year, backing up Mike Scioscia’s contention that he’s pressing. If we take this a bit further, we can see just how badly his approach is costing him hittable pitches.
First, let’s look at what he does on the first pitch:
| Player | Avg. | Obp. | Slg. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vlad 2009 | 0.286 | 0.273 | 0.381 |
| Vlad career | 0.366 | 0.370 | 0.674 |
| League average | 0.342 | 0.348 | 0.571 |
One of history’s great first-pitch swingers is now the equivalent of Erick Aybar when he swings at the first pitch. Given that about one in five Guerrero at bats only lasts one pitch, we’re looking at a lot of his lost production right here. But there’s even more damage being done on the first pitch. Here’s what happens in at bats after he falls behind 0-1, and how often it happens:
| Player | Avg. | Obp. | Slg. | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlad 2009 | 0.275 | 0.275 | 0.333 | 64% |
| Vlad career | 0.286 | 0.321 | 0.479 | 50% |
| League average | 0.235 | 0.279 | 0.359 | 53% |
The key here isn’t what he does after an 0-1 count, but how often he does it. Everybody is terrible when they fall behind, including MVP Vlad of years past, and Vlad is no worse than the rest of the world. But the key is to not get behind in the count, which makes that first pitch so important. Guerrero actually leads the majors in first pitch strike percentage.
My hunch — and what I feel like I’ve observed — is that Guerrero isn’t falling behind because he’s taking fastballs grooved down the middle. He’s falling behind because he’s expanding the strike zone on the first pitch and, when he isn’t making bad contact and ending his at bat, he’s fouling it off or swinging and missing. Is anybody else seeing what I’m seeing?
Make no mistake: He’s not exactly setting the world on first when he gets ahead in the count, but his .314/.385/.400 line after 1-0 is at least acceptable. Meanwhile, what he does on first-pitch outcomes — .286/.274/.381 — is unacceptable and all too frequent. And what he does after falling behind in the count — .275/.275/.333 — is unacceptable and all too frequent. Add it up, and his hacking ways means that 70 percent of his plate appearances are essentially over after the first pitch.
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I’m sorry about your loss of your father Terry Smith. My thoughts are with you.
Jodi Hare
Bye Bye Vlad! Hello Bobby!!!!
What really strikes me is bat speed. How many balls has he been ahead of, or even on top of? Even when he singles, Vlad is putting it through the right side of the infiled, and fouling off balls that way, too, almost exclusively.
I love me some Vlad - - he cemented his place with me when he met my son and I after a game - - just a class act with the kid and very friendly - - So I hope he figures this out.
I’d hate to see him done like this, to go out with a whimper instead of a roar, and end his Anaheim days without fanfare.
That said, I’m still on my “AYBAR NEEDS to GO” bandwagon. Anyone with me?
Stick a fork in Vladde… he’s done.
Couldn’t have picked a worse time then his contract year…
Agree, Vlad is cooked. He looks slow the minute he puts on the uniform. And with Aybar, you might as well pencil an out when he comes up to bat. This lineup is extremely weak and the east coast teams will work us again if we get to the postseason. Can’t wait for the NFL and college football….
Vladdy’s bat speed is gone. Lets use Aybar, Santana ,and Mathis as trade bait to get some power or pitching.
Tom,
Goodbye Vlad you were way better than Mo Vaughn, but we still didn’t win a title with you. Can we extend Abreu for 2 years at $8M each now before the economy picks up?
I’m with you on the dealing Aybar/Izturis and Mathis but Santana? Why all the hate for one of the best pitchers we’ve had in the last 5 years? Not sure what people expect to get when they trade bench players, but the guy I’m looking to move to a contender at the break is Lackey. I don’t believe he is going to resign anyhow so if we can get some help from a ptiching starved team at the break so be it. Expect the Angels to face Lackey 5 times next year-as a member of the Texas Rangers. It won’t hurt so bad when we get Peavy in the off season. In fact, it would be wise to deal for Peavy now while he’s on the DL with an eye toward the remaining two years on his deal. With the Padres out of contention Peavy+Gonzalez for Wood/Morales+Palmer/Bulger looks pretty good.
Yeah, like the Pads would EVER go for that deal. Nice try.
Lots of moves need to be made.
Abreu and Vlad are killing the lineup.
You cna count on your hands how many times Abreu has hit the ball hard. He’s not what this lineup needs, not coming from the outfield.
Vlad, he’s never going to change, now that the power is gone, his pitch selection and overall approach to the game is going to anger a lot more people.
Quinlan still has the ugliest swing in baseball, and has no business getting starts.
I’m definitely on the “AYBAR needs to go” bandwagon.
Honestly, it’s steroids. Went to the game yesterday. Guys like Gagne came up during conversations. Look at this…Vladi, Manny, Russell Martin, Matthews, and Abreu all have tanked from an HR perspective since the new rules have kicked in. All except for Manny, but he was caught. A Rod…benched. Maglio Ordonez…..benched. Reality is kicking in. Can’t wait for PUjols to get caught. hate to say it, but you must be honest. Vladi is done. Unless he juices it up again.
I’ve been knocking Vlad for two years now, with everybody (up until now) giving me grief for it. He’s become Ichiro without the speed and power. Don’t the Halos have enough of those type guys in this lineup already? The only real power threat is Torii Hunter and the dude my contend for the MVP, but there is absolutely no way he gets pitched to the whole season.
I knew Abreu wouldn’t hit 20-25 HR’s with the Angels, again I told you so Angels fans, but he may not even get to 10 which is just pathetic. At least he gets on base and makes things happen though, unlike a couple other OBP killers I can mention…
Uhm, Vlad is playing with a torn pectoral muscle.
Can we cut him a little slack please.
Guy is one of the top 10 greatest hitters of all time, playing hurt, hitting close to .300 and you’re ready to release him.
Of course he swings at everything, he always has.
Would I teach a young hitter to do that? Of course not, but the guy can hit.
Calm down and enjoy one of the greatest hitters of all time playing for your team.
As for Abreu, lmao the guy is hitting over .300 with and OBP at .400.
What more do you want from a number 2 hitter. You guys cry about steroid use and then whine when home runs are down.
Make up your mind.
Jake- Abreu was brought in to be a run producer, not a slap hitting singles hitter. The Angels have plenty of those guys.
Go back and listen to every pre-season preview of the angels this year, they all said the same thing Abreu has hit x HRS and driven in 100 runs blah blah blah. And my favorite was when they said he won a gold glove, implying that he was still good in the OF, which is he well below average.
Once again, another example of the Angels over-valuing talent.
David, getting on base produces runs. Abreu is doing what we need him to. At $5 million, what do you want? Do your homework.
Below average? Who told you that? He is still a gazillion times better than having Vlad flop around out there. Don’t forget, Abreu was supposed to be playing LEFT FIELD when the season started. He is actually a natural right fielder.
Oh, and Abreu is producing runs, scoring them and knocking them in. He just isn’t hitting any homers. That is the ONLY knock against him right now.
I think most fans probably realize now that these two clubs are heading in different directions. The Dodgers look younger, faster, have better defense and a better bullpen. The Angels look old and there are question marks all over the place with the impending free agency of Vladimir, Lackey, Figgins and Abreu.
I personally believe Vlad was on the juice, but got off when A-Rod got popped. There really is no other explanation for a guy who used to hit 500-foot homers now not being able to even hit to the warning track.
what the heck is Mickey (mouse) Hatcher being paid for ? Vlad should be his number 1 priority, it looks like they are letting Vlad do his his same old thing when they should be coaching him out of this slump.
The saddest comments of all are those that throw Vlad’s name in with the steroid guys. A convenient non-truth because he played in that era.
Guerrero was one of the great players of his era. What a hitter he was. Heck, what a player, period.
It’s a shame that he is sliding down the sunset side of the hill as fast as he is, but it happens sometimes — even to the great ones. Let’s hope that his pectoral muscle is the reason for his anemic showing at the plate so far and that he’ll rebound with a great second half.
If it doesn’t happen, well … at least we can say we saw him for a spell when he was still in his hey-day and that it was a delight to witness. In the meantime, perhaps a modicum of respect is more called for than abuse.
I don’t know about Vlad taking steroids but I am sick of seeing his God-awful swing every night. Whether the pitch is bouncing 2 feet in front of him, in the other batter’s box or over his head he’s swinging at it. Scioscia needs to sit this clown down now and bring up Wood to DH and get some at bats. This team is going nowhere fast. Once we started seeing some good pitching again it was business as usual for the offense. But I think you need to score some runs in order to call it ” Offense “. I don’t think Scioscia has the cajones to give Vlad a strict talking to about his at-bats and I completely blame Mike for leaving him in the 4 spot. Shame on you Scioscia. This is one guy who is not going to hit his way out of it
The Giants weren’t a good pitching staff? Teams go through streaks you know!
Here’s a great idea.. Trade Vlade now! You know the Angels are not going to re-sign him to any kind of deal longer than 2 years and he would never agree to that anyway. Pick up some pitching and go after Matt Holliday. Trade Lackey too for that matter… They’re not going to re-sign him either.
Hey, Vlad is going to lead the league…..too bad it’s in double plays hit into !!
Aybar must go…..here is proof being athletic is just not enough. He cannot bunt well, % of successful bunts is way too low ; erratic fielder who has trouble with the routine plays; absolutely NOT a clutch hitter;
too many minuses altho he has some plusses. I’ll take Eckstien hitting .250 and making the routine plays AND expertly bunting and hitting behind the runners to make productive outs, something Aybar
understands nothing about. Hey, I don’t hate the guy, I just don’t think he is a WINNER, and will not make the Halos a consistent winner.
The heart of the Halos….Figgins and Hunter. Figgins MUST be retained because of his high skill level at SO MANY different aspects of the game: defense, defensive versatility, fantastic OBP, switch hitter, steals, high batting average, great teammate, and remenber, even the threat of stealing can distract and or change a pitcher’s game so more fastballs are thrown. Also his knowledge of the strike zone just keeps getting better and better, so he is a very tough out. Lastly, he is just FUN to watch play….offense or defense.
UNfortunately the Angels had many players that REALLY got after it….Brian Downing, Jim Edmonds, Darin Erstad, David Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, among others, and they HAVE NOT restocked this type of player (exception is Tori Hunter)….players who can play exceptional defense and play Angel baseball (productive outs, bunting, first to third, team-first concepts).
Heck, Erstad probably gave up 50 outs a year just slapping grounders to the right side to move up runners….to the detriment of his own batting average. Ask his teammates; they loved that mindset.
…..bye now
I wholeheartedly agree with everything in this post. The Halos lack gamers. They don’t have the spit in your eye get ‘er done guys. Sure, Napoli is almost there, and Lackey used to be before he got those $ in his eyes, but the role playing guys aren’t get ‘er done guys. They’re the guys who HOPE they do it right, and do what they’re told as best as possible. They don’t go out and make smart decisions, like moving a runner over by hitting the other way, (as mentioned above).
Even GA - - I was one to say he looked lazy out there - - but find me a hitter who understands opportunities and rises to it. How many runners on 2nd w/ low outs were moved to third by im hitting the ball toward the 2b side?
Do you see Aybar doing that? Or do you see him up there swinging away like a idiot hoping he connects?
We lack the fire in the belly guys. The true yell-at-his-teammates-when-they-need-it type - Percy, Esrtad, etc. - - and the type who’s going to show up everyday and give their absolutely best no matter what - - a la eckstein, percy, etc. We lack that…heart…sad, eh?
I never realized how dumb Angel fans are until reading these ridiculous comments ripping Vlad and Aybar. Find another team
You are too dumb to watch Angels baseball. Go root for the Yankees like every other idiot who thinks this is fantasy baseball.
How about you grow a pair and realize that there are holes all over the field and that criticizing “your” own team is the ultimate example of fandom. Can you not see the forest for the trees? Do you lack all objectivity? Did you even watch the playoffs last year???
JAKE LOGAN, you must be on something. Angel Fans are way to laid back. We have every right to criticize the performance of this very mediocre team. There needs to be some wholesale changes in the way this team develops strong minor league talent. It’s about time Angel fans wake up and start to put some pressure on management. Go back to sleep, dude…..
I also believe that half the problem is the unwillingness of some players to learn the english language. Tough to have a real team atmosphere when you can’t understand what the heck they are saying. Just stating the facts…
QUE???? say it again in spanish, so I can understand.