Orange County Register

These simulations that we use to get our playoff odds are partly based on run differentials, the idea being that a team that greatly outscores its opponents (and wins) is more likely to continue winning than one that has barely outscored its opponents (and won). So a loss like last night’s might not hurt the Angels any worse than a 4-3 loss in the standings, but it will hurt them in these playoff odds reports. Just so you know.

To win the West: 45 percent

To win the Wild Card: 2 percent

To make the playoffs: 47 percent

Today’s 7 percent drop is the Angels’ fourth biggest of season.

(Based on one million simulations of the season from this point on.)

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