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Juan Rivera proves he’s worth every penny to Angels
July 8th, 2009, 7:00 am · 26 Comments · posted by Earl Bloom, staff writer
The Angels lost again to Texas on Tuesday night, but don’t blame Juan Rivera.
The outfielder, who turned 31 last Friday, hit two more home runs against the Rangers, including his fourth in seven career at-bats against Texas closer Frank Francisco.
Rivera is hitting .317 with 16 home runs and 52 RBIs less than a week before the All-Star Game. He has a .357 on-base percentage, has slugged .519, and has an .896 OPS, in 305 plate apearances (284 at-bats).
When the Angels re-signed Rivera, a free agent, to a four-year contract on Dec. 19, my ocregister.com colleague Sam Miller addressed the development in an article headlined “Is Juan Rivera worth $12 million?”
In his concise review, Sam listed three projections of Rivera’s 2009 performance:
ZiPS: 325 at bats, .268/.313/.446, 13 home runs.
Bill James: 317 at bats, .281/.327/.467, 13 home runs.
Marcel: 313 at bats, .272/.323/.450, 13 home runs.
Sam also included these two paragraphs:
Teams typically spend about $5 million per win on free agents, so that would mean Rivera is worth only about $1.25 million a year. If we use Bill James’ more optimistic projection, it’d be about $2 million.
That’s if we believe our projections. If you prefer to recall Juan Rivera as the guy who hits for pop whether he’s healthy or not, who is just 30 years old and two years removed from a very valuable season, I’ve got no problem with that. As Keith Law wrote a couple months ago, Rivera has a shot to outperform his contract.
Well, he has outperformed it, already, for this season — in my opinion. The $3.25 million of Arte Moreno money Rivera gets 
this season is some of the best money the Angels have ever spent. If he had been selected to the July 14 All-Star Game in St. Louis, he would not have looked out of place at all.
GM Tony Reagins landed four free agents, re-signing Rivera and Darren Oliver, and getting Brian Flores and Bobby Abreu off the market.
Not counting incentives, the Angels are paying those four about $20.4 million for 2009. The deal Mark Teixeira signed with the New York Yankees averages about $22.5 million.
Figure the performance of Kendry Morales as Teixeira’s replacement into the equation, and who had a better winter?
Now, if John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Kelvin Escobar and Scot Shields were themselves (or any two of them) … well, that’s another column.
Oh, and to put Rivera’s dominance of Francisco into perspective, he has hit one-fifth of the 20 homers the Rangers closer has allowed in 208 big-league innings.
26 Comments
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Couldn’t agree more. Juan is a favorite of mine and we all could see his potential before the broken leg. I felt he should have returned the money to the Angels for the season he lost due to the injury. But nevertheless, I knew if this guy was healthy he was going to hit 25 home runs and be a big part of that middle lineup. I was happy they re-signed him.
I called Sam Miller out on that in Februray when he said the Angels should have signed Manny Ramirez instead. I have very little faith in number crunchers like Sam Miller. Ever since Moneyball came out, these guys feel some kind of vindication for all their long hours of playing stratomatic baseball. Anyone who remembers how Rivera played in 2006 and watched him during the last two months of 2008 could see that he was regaining form. I was very happy when the Angels re-signed him and felt in my gut that he was going to have another breakout year like 2006. Well, the season isn’t over yet, but if Juan stays true to form, then the best is yet to come because he is just now finding his groove and his second is usually stronger than his first half.
I completely agree with this statement. Numbers don’t count when a guy comes through for a team consistently. Rivera has been there every time. Manny Ramirez is a druggie and no one will admit that. He has a bad attitude and Juan has a heart of gold. I can’t wait to see what Juan will do in the next few months!!
Couldn’t agree more either! I’ve been telling all my Angel fan friends for the past few years that if they gave Juan a full year he could put up GA kind of numbers. Not bad in the field either, not flashy but does not make stupid mistakes.
Those projections are absolute nonsense, especially when a guy has never been an everyday player. I remember Art Howe throwing BP to Eric Byrnes one day and wondering what he would do if he ever got 400 at-bats (at a time when he wasn’t a very highly regarded bench player). That turned out OK.
Is Rivera the same kid that got released by the Yankees because hi took one of Derek Jeter’s gloves and sold it? I remember that story from years ago and was wondering if that was him?
That was Ruben Rivera
Ruben Rivera is still playing in Mexico, and he played for Panama in the World Baseball Classic.
Getting the kind of production out of Rivera that we have seen so far, would seem to indicate that we don’t need another bat for the playoffs, and am not sure where you would put that bat in the field. however with the way our starting pitching has been injured/struggled now is the time to put together an offer for Halliday or Peavy-even injured. we need a front line starter, just look at what Red Sox, Yankees, Tampa, and Detroit have - can we count on Lackey to shut down the other team’s big bats and hold against a #1 starter like Beckett - we haven’t proven that yet. Angel fans need to worry about playoffs and how we match up; rest assured we will be there at the end of the season, we have a very deep team built for that, but maybe not a playoff team over seven games.
Rivera is underated
Rivera is having a nice year, but it wasn’t long ago, he was almost platooning with GMJ, that is your genius Mike at work
He was platooning because he was still recovering from a broken tibia he suffered in December 2006 while playing winter ball in Latin America. He missed almost the entire 2007 season becasue of it and when the Angels signed Torii Hunter before the 2008 season a logjam was created. For the amount of $$$ they were paying Matthews and with a no-trade clause, it didn’t make sense to sit Matthews.
I’ve always been a HUGE fan of Juan. but now, this year he’s taking it to a whole. noth’. lev’.
All entertainers including athletes (IMO) make way TOO much money while teachers make diddly squat.. We should invest in the future not instant gratification..so I protest going to games or movies.
fed_up: If taxpayers paid the salaries of entertainers, I would see your point.
But the money you don’t spend on entertainment does not go to education, unless you somehow donate it.
I’d also like to know your opinion on paying taxes. Are you against it, or just against how the money is spent?
Hey, I just know that my Man Crush on Rivera is going strong. I was THRILLED when they re-uped him over the winter.
Let’s hope he continues tonight, because lord knows our lineup is a little pop-less.
is that a word?
yeah….for this team, pop-less is a good word to go with.
Really? Rivera, Hunter, Napoli, Morales…I believe they all have double digit home runs already. Throw in Abreu’s moderate power and Vlad possibly returning to form soon I’m not sure how much more pop they can get. It seems like people are saying this out of habit and really aren’t paying much attention…
Carlos, as usual you make excellent points. Criticizing the Angels offense this season makes about as much sense as those who think Scioscia will be fired after signing a nine-year extension.
BTW, you will enjoy Mark Whicker’s timely column on the Angels’ offense:
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/angels-runs-one-2488689-year-league
I’m glad someone is acknowledging Juan’s performance and value. For all of the times that the Halos get it ‘wrong’ by putting faith in kids (McPherson is Exhibit A), it’s nice to see what a Rivera, or a Morales, or an Izturis pan out. I read this article after the one on Doc. We all want the glitz and glamor guys, but the real secret to winning in baseball (and even the Yankees and Red Sox have figured this out) is to get the most out of your 25 man roster and the most for the dollars you have to spend. So I say ncie job Angels. Keep the faith in guys like Napoli, Kendrick, Izzy, Wood, Walden, Reckling, etc… who will build the base for the future. And the Angels will do what they have done under Moreno…compliment the kids with free agents and be competitive.
For all of the times that the Halos get it “wrong” by putting faith in kids…?
I get that at one time. Yes there was McLemore and Schoefield and Petit and Easly (although some went on to success with other teams). But let;s not forget the 02 team and really the last say 10 years have been pretty strong: Salmon, Glaus, Erstad, Lackey, K Rod, Eckstein (originally a Bosox draftee) GA, Edmonds and on and on all turned out pretty well and got the elusive crown. I think their successes are out doing their mistakes. when you consider the general success rate of players making an impact overall, the Angels have done very well I think. WHile I cede the point on one level for bemoaning DMac (i just think most guys that have a K rate like that will get exploited in the majors) he never has been healthy which is a totally different thing. We wiil never know for sure if he is never able to get healthy and develop.
In the end, their scouting has been strong. I was not in favor of signing any single player not named Pujols for ov er 20 Million per year and would reather get two or even three (or as noted above several) players for that kind of maoney and you are almost always better off. Just ask the Rangers and the Yankees et al.
My friend and I have always been saying give Rivera the chance and he will produce. Now if only the team would do that for Brandon Wood.
Give it up for Fuentes as well. We don’t miss Frankie a bit. Sam, please crunch Fuentes’ numbers after his horrific start. I’d bet his peripherals are as good as any other closer’s if you toss out the beginning of the season.
Stop bashing Ramirez-who would put more people in the stands ? Sorry but not Rivera. He’s having a good year, but he cannot, like Manny carry a team.
Well Buddy, Let’s pump some steroids into Rivera or Napoli and let’s see if they don’t start blasting the ball into outer space.
Face it, Manny gets what he deserves. He tried what was openly against the rules, (like Samy the “CORK” Sossa.) Now he has to take the ridicule.
We the fans are owed that much.
I am IN LOVE with him.. He rocks my world as he rocks the baseball field. I love watching him play. He is so humble and I love that about him. He gets in there, gets the job done and is not an arrogant #$&*%&^$ like other players, of other teams of course.