Orange County Register

Before the season began, reasonable people were projecting the A’s as the favorite, or at least a strong contender, in a wide-open AL West. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system led the way, projecting the A’s would score 781 runs, allow 755, and win around 85 games. CHONE forecast the A’s would win 81 games and come up just four games short of the Angels.

Instead, the A’s are in last place, seven games under .500 and 18 games behind the Angels. They were effectively eliminated from postseason contention by Aug. 27. For the second year, they sold significant parts at the trade deadline, and the rebuilding project that began before 2005 continues to bear little resemblance to the artist’s rendering.

What went wrong:

1. The imported veteran hitters were all horrible — at least until they were traded away. Jason Giambi, who had an .870 OPS over the previous three seasons, produced merely .697 for the A’s. Matt Holliday switched leagues and lost 10 points of OBP and 100 points of slugging percentage off his career averages. Nomar Garciaparra had a .308 OBP in limited time, especially awful when you consider he was mostly limited to first base and DH. Orlando Cabrera hit just .262/.299/.345 in the first half. Holliday, Giambi and Cabrera have all hit much better in the second half, but all three are playing for other, contending teams.
2. The Holliday trade in particular didn’t work out, as the players the A’s gave up — Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street — were both excellent for the Rockies for much less money.
3. Joey Devine, a breakout relief ace in 2008, had Tommy John surgery in the spring and didn’t pitch an inning. Brad Ziegler, who was to share the ninth inning with Devine, lost his BABIP mojo and gave up nearly 50 percent more hits per inning than in a sterling 2008.
4. Justin Duchscherer, Oakland’s most experienced starting pitcher, was forecast to have the 11th best ERA in the American League by PECOTA. Here’s how his year progressed in the pages of the Oakland Tribune:

• March 13: “With No. 1 starter Justin Duchscherer still recovering from a sore right elbow, the A’s may need to call on Eveland to take the mound…”
• March 27: “ A’s ace Justin Duchscherer will undergo arthroscopic surgery early next week on his right elbow … Six weeks is a ballpark estimate.”
• April 25: “Right-hander Justin Duchscherer, recovering from his own elbow surgery, has started doing range-of-motion exercises but is still not close to throwing…”
• May 20: “Justin Duchscherer (right elbow) is still on schedule to throw off the mound for the first time Friday.”
• June 7: “The A’s are considering returning Justin Duchscherer to the bullpen once he’s activated from the 60-day DL.”
• July 31: “Right-hander Justin Duchscherer was scratched from Friday’s scheduled rehab start with Triple-A Sacramento for a ‘non-baseball related issue’”
• Aug. 21: “The A’s announced Friday afternoon that right-hander Justin Duchscherer is undergoing treatment for clinical depression and will miss the rest of the season.”

What went right:
1. A lot more than you might realize. The A’s are actually on pace to score 755 runs, and allow 752, which means that PECOTA and CHONE almost perfectly nailed this team’s fundamental performance. It also means they are probably a better team than their record shows. And it highlights that the A’s are actually five games over .500 since the All-Star break.
2. Despite losing Devine, Oakland’s bullpen has been the best in the American League this year, for a total cost of $3.5 million. The Angels’ bullpen cost about $22 million; Boston’s bullpen, the league’s second-best, cost  $11 million.
3. After Duchscherer and Sean Gallagher were injured, the A’s had five rookies and Dallas Braden (24 career starts) from which to fashion a rotation. Brett Anderson — 139 Ks and 44 walks in 160 innings — looks like a future ace. Braden and Josh Outman are already league average innings eaters. Gio Gonzalez was mostly terrible, but he struck out a batter per inning, so there’s reason to imagine good things. There’s not much good to say about Trevor Cahill and Vin Mazzaro’s seasons, except that neither has turned 23 yet. Out of this muddle, the A’s may have found enough quality pitchers to field a team next year.
4. Rajai Davis, picked up for nothing in the offseason, was a quiet breakout, as his excellent defense, patience and smart speed made him worth about $16 million this year. The A’s paid him $400,000, and control him for four more seasons.

What will happen to them this offseason?
When you succeed by finding free talent, it’s important to let that talent go before it gets expensive. So pleasant surprises Adam Kennedy and Brett Tomko might not be back. Holliday, Cabrera and Giambi are traded away, and Nomar Garciaparra and Bobby Crosby will probably go elsewhere as free agents. Justin Duchscherer is a free agent.

That frees up perhaps $20 million from 2009’s payroll. Michael Wuertz and Scott Hairston should get raises in arbitration, and Mark Ellis and Eric Chavez have raises coming, but the A’s should still have some money to spend on the free agent market. Every other player on the roster is under team control well into the future.  I could see them making a run at a damaged pitcher, perhaps Brett Myers, Brad Penny or Rich Harden. Or a shortstop or third baseman. Chone Figgins might have appealed to them, but has probably priced himself out.

Prospects Brett Wallace and Chris Carter should push their way onto the corner infield spots at some point next year.

Perhaps:

• C. Suzuki
• 1B. Barton/Carter
• 2B. Ellis
• SS. Pennington/Cardenas
• 3B. Wallace
• LF. Hairston
• CF. Davis
• RF. Sweeney/Buck
• DH. Cust

Will they contend next year?
We can probably give them credit for being an 81-win team this year, as their run differential suggests. It’s not unreasonable that they catch some breaks, ride a breakout or two, and win 86 or 87 games in 2010. But Oakland looked like contenders before 2009 because the AL West looked like a soft division. It doesn’t anymore, and you’d have to bet on the Angels and, possibly, the Rangers to win at least 90 next season. Furthermore, it’s just as likely the A’s catch some bad breaks, get dragged down by an off-year or two, and win 74 or 75 games, just like this year.

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