Orange County Register

Gary Matthews, Jr. wants to be traded. Barring that, he’d like to be released “to go somewhere to play for an organization that believes in my ability to play every day. ” I’m assuming he doesn’t mean the Fullerton Flyers, but an actual Major League team. But if he were actually a free agent right now, how sure should he be that he’d even get a Major League contract offer?

Consider:

• In 2008, Juan Uribe got 353 plate appearances for the White Sox, almost exactly as many as Matthews got for the Angels this year. Uribe was 238th in OPS among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances in 2008, while Matthews was 227th in 2009.  But Uribe’s nearly-average defense at tough positions made him at least as valuable as a replacement-level* player. He was four years younger than Matthews is, and still he had to sign a minor league contract, without guaranteed money, to get a chance with the Giants. Matthews — who gets slammed by multiple defensive metrics — was considerably worse than replacement level in 2009, so should he expect any better?

BUT, one argues, at least Uribe did get a chance, even if only with a minor league deal.

• Ray Durham, then. Durham was better than league average as a hitter, at a demanding position, in 2008. Gary Matthews couldn’t even slug as high as Durham’s OBP. If we knock him for bad defense, he was still worth a couple games above a replacement player, while Matthews was worth less than a replacement player. Durham is unemployed, unable to find a job anywhere last offseason, despite reaching out to teams in need. Why should Matthews expect any better?

BUT, one argues, Durham is a middle infielder, and teams might not want to commit to bad defense at second base. So it’s apples and oranges.

• Jose Vidro, then. Vidro, at age 33 in 2008, was every bit as bad as Matthews was in 2009. He was worth more than a win  below replacement level in 330 plate appearances, and was just as frustrating economically — like Matthews, he was paid a very hefty salary ($8.5 million) to cost his team wins. On the other hand, it  was his first below-replacement-level season, while Matthews has now had two seasons below replacement. Vidro was released by his team; nobody picked him up. Why should Matthews expect any better?

BUT, one says, Vidro is a DH. He can’t contribute anything defensively, so it’s an unfair comparison.

• Emil Brown, then. The outfielder was right around replacement level in 2007-2008, coming off a flukishly big 2006 season. Like Matthews, he struggled at the plate, finishing 237th in OPS. Unlike Matthews, his defense at right and left field rated well above average. From 2006-2008, he was worth 3.4 wins above replacement level. From 2007-2009, Matthews was worth negative 1.3 wins. Brown was signed to a minor league deal before the season and collected only six plate appearances in the majors this year. Why should Matthews expect any better?

BUT Brown can’t play center field. Matthews can’t play it well, according to most metrics, but at least he’s an option, right?

• Jim Edmonds, then. Edmonds played center field for the Padres and the Cubs in 2008. He hit 20 home runs in just 340 at bats, with an enormous second-half for the Cubs in which he put up a .937 OPS in 300 plate appearances. Before that, he hadn’t been much of a hitter for a year and a half — but he was better than Matthews, and had never been below replacement level. From 2006-2008, he was worth nearly six wins more than Matthews has been worth in the past three years. He was better than Gary Matthews, Jr. He’s now hosting pole-dancing competitions.

BUT maybe Edmonds just didn’t want to play enough to sign with a bad team or for less money.

• Then, finally, we get to Kenny Lofton. Until the end, Lofton never stopped being good. In 2007, he played 700 innings of above-average defense in center field, according to the well-regarded metric UZR. He had 500 at bats of above-average hitting. He still rated an above-average baserunner. Add it up, and he was worth three wins above replacement, according to Fangraphs. He had previously played with teams as lowly as the Pirates in order to keep his career going. He had previously signed for as little as $1 million to keep his career going. But after 2007, he was forcibly retired because nobody wanted an aging center fielder — nobody, that is, except the Rays (who offered him $1 million for one year), and the Reds, who offered him a minor league contract.

Now, worse players than these found jobs, and Matthews quite possibly will too. But if Uribe, Durham, Vidro, Brown, Edmonds and especially Lofton weren’t in demand, what makes Gary Matthews, Jr. think that he is?

* Replacement level is, to oversimplify, the level we would expect any team to be able to easily replace from its farm system. Consider: Is there any doubt that the Angels could have gotten Matthews’ performance and better from Sean Rodriguez or Chris Pettit or Terry Evans last year? A Win Above Replacement typically goes for about $4 or $5 million on the free agent market.

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.