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Bad contracts to swap
November 3rd, 2009, 9:58 am · 6 Comments · posted by Sam Miller, The Orange County Register
One way to exise Gary Matthews, Jr. would be a bad-contract swap, like when the Angels traded Steve Finley for Edgardo Alfonzo in 2005. MLB Trade Rumors helpfully lists the contracts teams might be eager to unload. Let’s subtract from each contract the $23 million still owed to Matthews and ask whether the player would be worth acquiring at that adjusted price.
For instance, Aaron Rowand is owed $36 million over the next three years. If the teams swapped, the Angels would have Rowand for three years at an adjusted total of $13 million. Would you want Aaron Rowand at that cost? Probably.
..
| Player | Years | Adj. Millions | 2009 value* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Wells | 5 | 75.5 | $-0.2 million |
| Alfonso Soriano | 5 | 67 | $-3.6 million |
| Alex Rios | 5 | 36.7 | $0.1 million |
| Barry Zito | 4 | 60 | $10 million |
| Michael Young | 4 | 41 | $17.6 million |
| Travis Hafner | 3 | 17.25 | $5.4 million |
| Aaron Rowand | 3 | 13 | $8.5 million |
| Carlos Lee | 3 | 32.5 | $10.6 million |
| Derek Lowe | 3 | 22 | $12 million |
| Kyle Lohse | 3 | 9.65 | $3.7 million |
| Carlos Guillen | 2 | 3 | $0.5 million |
| Carlos Silva | 2 | 2 | $-0.4 million |
| Francisco Cordero | 2 | 2 | $6.6 million |
| Oliver Perez | 2 | 1 | $-3.4 million |
| Milton Bradley | 2 | -2 | $5.1 million |
| Juan Pierre | 2 | -4.5 | $8.2 million |
| Todd Helton | 2 | 17.3 | $16.2 million |
| Magglio Ordonez | 2 | 10 | $9.2 million |
| Jeff Suppan | 1 | -8.5 | $-3 million |
Text
(One-year obligations, at more than $10 million/player, include those for Eric Byrnes, Dontrelle Willis, Eric Chavez, Jeremy Bonderman and Jose Guillen.)
Looking at that list, Wells, Zito and probably Soriano look untouchable at the prices remaining. I probably wouldn’t want Hafner or Helton at that price, and while Michael Young could get that much on the open market it wouldn’t be from the infield-rich Angels. Pretty much everybody else looks like a good deal — or a total bargain — once you subtract Matthew’s money.
What this chart tells me is that it won’t be as easy to swap bad contracts as some fans are hoping. The Reds aren’t going to trade Francisco Cordero for Matthews for a real savings of just $2 million. The Cubs probably won’t stoop to trading Milton Bradley — still a league-average hitter even in his career-worst season — for GMJ and a bigger contract obligation.
Oliver Perez is an interesting option — the Mets are still weak in the outfield. Kyle Lohse is an interesting option, if the Cardinals bring back Joel Pineiro and John Smoltz and consider Lohse unnecessary. Carlos Silva might be the fairest swap, dead weight for dead weight and little hope for either. Little desire for either.
Otherwise, unlike Finley-for-Alfonzo, virtually any swap would require significant cash or additional players in transit, as well.
* 2009 value is according to Fangraphs, based on Wins Above Replacement. Magglio Ordonez figure assumes his 2011 option vests. He needs 562 plate appearances in 2010 to guarantee that.
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I asked Padre chat if the Angels did a manja job on the contract if they’d give you the Kouz for him….Not interested.
If the “infield-rich” Angels really thought they could get Michael Young for negligible player cost, I think the manager would explore a way to rearrange the “riches” and make it happen. Young was second among AL 3B’s in OPS (only behind A-Rod) and had a career high slugging percentage in ‘09.
As terrible as Oliver Perez was for the Mets in 2009, and no one defends the amount of money that GM Omar Minaya gave him ($13 mil per year over 3 years) he also was injured for most of the season and had knee surgery at season’s end.
The trick is, Oliver Perez has flashes of brilliance, especially against the Yankees of all teams. And he does have upside if he’s able to locate his pitches instead of walking the park.
All that being said, we know where GMJ’s peak is, and he already hit it. With Oliver Perez, there’s at least a chance that he can regain his prior form that he had in 2004, and even part of 2008. And even if he can’t, the Mets taking a player like GMJ for even league minimum doesn’t make sense when the club needs a far better OF solution than him.
Agreeing with you that Silva is likely the most realistic option for them, I decided to pull up his career stats and just look for any sign of hope for some form of effectiveness out of him, and yikes. What was Bavasi THINKING?
If that is really our only option, I say keep Matthews as our bench man or work out an Andruw Jones severance package.
I say we send GMJ and whoever it takes to get Gonzalez and Bell from SD. I know It sounds crazy, but it can be done. Kendri has played in the outfield and we have plenty of trade bait. The Angels should look into this, if only to keep him away from Boston, who I’m damn sure has him on their radar….
The Angels don’t have a real need for Adrian Gonzalez though, and he’ll be very expensive soon enough. Kendry Morales, not for a while.
Heath Bell on the other hand, sure, but the Padres don’t want to take on money either. Plus, Heath Bell likely does not have any interest in setting up for Brian Fuentes. But assuming he does for one year and then takes the closer role in 2011….(or if Fuentes is ok in setting up for Bell…)
You’d still have to pay GMJ’s contract while he plays for San Diego (assuming they’d even take him) plus find some other cheap quality players of worth for the Padres.