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Mariano dwarfs all other October pitchers
November 3rd, 2009, 1:19 pm · 5 Comments · posted by Sam Miller, The Orange County Register
Yes, that headline is an understatement. But consider:
In his chat this morning, Rob Neyer was asked whether we should quit calling Mariano Rivera the greatest postseason closer ever and just start saying he’s the greatest postseason player ever. Neyer: “Anyone want to figure out where Rivera ranks all-time in postseason WPA?”
WPA stands for Win Probability Added. If Alex Rodriguez comes up in the top of the first inning, a runner on first and two outs, his team has a 48 percent chance of winning, according to historical models. If he doubles, his team has a 58 percent chance of winning. Rodriguez gets credited with 0.10 wins added, while Cliff Lee, the pitcher, gets docked 0.10 wins added. (So the sum of all MLB players’ WPA will be zero. The sum of all players on a winning team for a single game will be 1.0.)
Somebody should figure out where Rivera ranks all-time in postseason WPA, but in the meantime, I compared him to the great pitchers, great postseason pitchers, great relievers, any pitchers I thought might have a big WPA over the past 50 years:
More than 1.0:
- David Wells
- Greg Maddux
- John Lackey
- Whitey Ford
- Dave Stewart
- Bob Gibson
- Josh Beckett
- Pedro Martinez
- Randy Johnson
- Sandy Koufax
- Cliff Lee
More than 2.0:
- Roger Clemens
- Orel Hershiser
- Orlando Hernandez
- Jim Palmer
- Mike Stanton
- Rollie Fingers
- Tom Glavine
More than 3.0:
- Andy Pettitte
- John Smoltz
More than 4.0:
- Curt Schilling
More than 5.0:
Nobody I could find.
More than 6.0, 7.0, 8.0, 9.0, 10.0:
Nobody I could find
More than 11.0:
- Mariano Rivera. (11.16)
I’m not sure there’s a record in baseball more lopsided than that, so we can certainly quit calling him the best postseason closer and call him the best postseason pitcher.
(Any other contenders, post 1960, I should check out?)
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Any comparison among pre-1969, 1969-to-1995, and post-1995 pitching in the postseason is strictly apples-and-oranges stuff.
Bob Gibson, Red Ruffing and Allie Reynolds were all 7-2 in the postseason and Gibson’s ERA was 1.95 with a WHIP of 0.89.. Except their postseasons were strictly limited to World Series competition. No DS’s, no LCS’s.
Gibson pitched in three World Series. Under today’s format, he could have pitched in six other series and, even under four-day’s-rest protocol, could have had 12 additional starts.
Ruffing pitched in seven Series, Reynolds six. And Lefty Gomez pitched in six World Series and was 6-0.
It’s about as accurate as saying Bernie Williams was a better postseason hitter than Mickey Mantle, or LaDainian Tomlinson was a more prolific rusher than Jim Brown. The two eras are not comparable.
Pretty sure that Luis Gonzalez’s grandchildren will have a slightly different perspective. That single to center he hit off Mo gets hit harder and harder every year…
Seems like you could/should divide this by innings pitched, no?
That’s an interesting question, Matt. I would say could, not should. You do want to reward longevity and opportunity. If Mariano Rivera had the same 0.75 ERA in the same leverage situations, but had only pitched, say, 25 innings instead of 130, we wouldn’t be talking about him as the greatest postseason performer ever. So I don’t have a problem keeping it as a counting stat.
There’s an obvious unfairness to comparing postseason careers — nobody is unaware of that — because not everybody has the same opportunities. I think that’s OK.
(But, eyeballing it, it looks like any reasonable innings limit — say, 50 — will still leave Rivera way, way ahead of everyone else I looked at on a rate basis.)
No reason a chart can’t have more than one column! (Also, closers would have an inherent advantage due to their life-and-death leverage moments, so it might be a fun exercise to separate starters from relievers.)