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Angels’ focus should be on Morales and Weaver
November 17th, 2009, 3:45 pm · 9 Comments · posted by Earl Bloom, staff writer
Interesting to hear the Angels aren’t entering the Matt Holliday race — not that, given the claiming price, it made any sense for them in the first place.
Holliday and Jason Bay might be the two best hitters out there, but they are left fielders, not likely Hall of Famers, and make much more sense in the current economy to the teams that play in Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park.
And neither one is Mark Teixeira, although surely that is how they will be portrayed on the market.
It is also interesting to learn the Anaheim club’s priority is to retain John Lackey and/or Chone Figgins, especially given the dollar amounts floated so far in the free agency “anything but money discussed” period that ends Friday.
If it’s true that $72 million was not enough for Lackey in the first place, and that Figgins is looking for a five-year, $50 million package, the Angels would be better served to look elsewhere.
In the organization, for a start.
It would probably serve the franchise’s interests (and the fans’) better if multiyear yet cost-effective deals could be done with right-hander Jered Weaver and first baseman Kendry Morales, similar to the one that was struck before last season with right-hander Ervin Santana.
Thanks to their performance, and arbitration, Weaver and Morales will get big money sooner than later. Weaver is arbitration-eligible in 2010, Morales likely will be in 2011.
By continuing to follow the John Hart model from Cleveland in the early 1990s, the Angels can give the players security now and likely save more than a few future dollars in return.
The Angels will pay a heavy bill in arbitration to Weaver, Joe Saunders, Mike Napoli, Jeff Mathis, Howie Kendrick, and Maicer Izturis in either by settling, or going to arbitration.
The club has already added a big-money pitcher in left-hander Scott Kazmir.
It does not seem prudent here for the Angels to bring back Lackey and Figgins at a combined twice as much as they made in 2009, on long-term deals into their 30s.
The re-signing of Bobby Abreu was a smart move. If DH Vladmir Guerrero can be brought back, for a hometown discount on an incentives-laden deal, that should be a plus, too.
Otherwise, it’s time to find out if Brandon Wood, Sean O’Sullivan, Trevor Bell, and eventually, Trevor Reckling and Jordan Walden, can play this game.
In Wood’s case, it’s almost past time … but that is another column.
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I totally agree. Make Weaver an offer similar to the one that Lackey is rumored to have turned down. And offer Morales $4M + $5M + $6M +$7M + $8M over the next five years. Get those guys locked in.
Earl, you forgot to mention that Weaver’s agent is Scott Boras.
No, I did not. I did not mention any agents in the column, and it was intentional. It’s not like Boras always turns down multiyear deals for pre-free agent players.
Weaver is three years removed from free agency. Holliday was two years removed when the Rockies signed him to a two-year, $23 million deal that just ran out.
Even if the Angels only buy the next three years of Weaver, they should save money, provided he remains healthy.
How does that work to the Angels’ advantage if they aren’t buying out any of his free agent years? Why would Weaver agree to take less than he could potentially earn in arbitration?
Why? Because it’s guaranteed money.
The first year of a multiyear will be right on what he could earn in arbitration; the second and third years will be projecitions.
I have to apologize, I forgot Escobar’s $9M coming off the books in my response to Mark’s questions, so factor that into big picture. He pitched so little in the past two years …. call it a senior moment.
Also, Carlos, the Rockies paid Holliday $23M for his final two seasons of arbitration by reaching an agreement. It could’ve been $30M if they had gone to arbitration and lost.
Earl there was a post earlier about how much money the Angels have coming off the books and how it wasn’t really all coming off the books as a result of increases that were expected through arbitration and other factors. If $10 million per season doesn’t make sense for Figgins and Lackey’s not going to be on the books, are the Angels looking at having less of a payroll for next year? Also will they go out and get an Adrian Beltre type in case Wood doesn’t cut it for 162?
Last thing first: If the Angels sign Adrian Beltre, he’s starting right away and Wood is not. AB is not coming in as a backup.
In the big picture, if you deduct the 2009 salaries of Lackey, Guerrero and Figgins, that’s almost $31 million coming off the books.
But Abreu already got a $4 million raise. Increases due Hunter, GMJ, Fuentes, Kazmir, Shields, Santana, Rivera and Morales add up to another $7.65 million, based on available data.
Napoli made $2 million and he’s not going to get a cut. Ditto Izturis at $1.6 million. Say between them they get $1.1 million in raises, and thats a conservative figure. And let’s use Napoli as a model for the other Angels who are coming into first-year arbitration. His salary in that position nearly increased fivefold from ‘08 to ‘09.
Saunders, Kendrick, Weaver, Aybar, Mathis and Willits all made between $450K and $475K. Round up and say they totaled $6 million in payroll in ‘09. At a conservative estimate using the Napoli model, they’re going to get between $20 and $24 million between them in 2010.
Let’s say the Angels get really lucky and the latter figure is only $20 million. Those increases I have listed add up to nearly $33 million, about $2 million more than the deduction for Lackey, Guerrero and Figgins.
I expect the payroll to be slightly higher than 2009. And I just don’t see the Angels increasing it another $25 million for a Lackey/Figgins combination. And the Angels have to pay a new DH (or LF if Rivera is the DH) something.
Sorry for the long answer.
What he’s saying is that the pay raises of the players currently on the roster will take up much of if not possibly all of the money that’s being freed up by mentioned players becoming free agents.