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One reporter’s take on the Angels and free agency
November 21st, 2009, 11:32 am · 8 Comments · posted by Earl Bloom, staff writer
Baseball free agency is upon us, and since it’s a weekend, it’s not surprising it’s off to a slow start.
The Angels’ stated stance seems to be making a choice between John Lackey or Chone Figgins; hoping to bring back Vladimir Guerrero for a good price; and looking for, in Arte Moreno’s words to the Los Angeles Times, “a power bat, a starter and another bullpen guy.”
Here’s my take on that, point-by-point:
– Lackey has been a solid No. 1 for the Angels, and should command a huge contract simply via the timing of his free agency. If all reports are somewhat accurate, he is way too pricey to come back to Anaheim.
In my opinion, the Angels have a viable No. 1 on the premises, but are reluctant to even address that because they have three more seasons worth of Jered Weaver contracts to negotiate with Scott Boras (more on this later).
– Figgins, right, has to be a Top Five attraction on the overall board, because he can help a club in so many ways (everything except power). If the five-year, $50 million tag is accurate, it is not too much for his value somewhere, but it is here.
The Angels have too many viable options at Figgins’ primary positions (Wood 3B, Rivera LF, Abreu RF, Kendrick/Izturis 2B, Aybar leadoff). And the thought of being committed to $10 million a season to Figgins when he is 35 and 36 in the last two years of a five-year deal should give pause.
– Everyone’s always looking for a power bat. The Angels got out of the pricey Mark Teixeira bidding last winter early, then found they had a power bat on hand in Kendry Morales, they just had to play him every day. Brandon Wood deserves that shot, too.
No worries in CF, or for a No. 5 hitter, with Torii Hunter around.
If Guerrero does not come back, and Figgins does not return, the Angels will likely keep Juan Rivera in left rather than moving him to DH. If so, I hope they look in the (relatively) bargain bin at Russell Branyan, Carlos Delgado and Nick Johnson. Each of those selections has issues, but none of the three are Type A or B, so there’s no compensation. And they are left-handed power hitters, something the team desperately needs.
– A starting pitcher? Even realizing the Angels organization was dealt a tragic setback with the death of Nick Adenhart, a good organzation should be able to produce a fifth starter behind Weaver, Santana, Kazmir and Saunders. Out of respect to Lackey for his service, the Angels might be reluctant to address that they have a No. 1 (for them) on hand. More likely, they are not giving Boras any additional ammunition for Weaver negotiations (as if that will make any difference).
That is, unless the Angels are talking about acquiring a universal No. 1, and the true No. 1 out there, Roy Halladay, will cost more money than Lackey in contract and will take a chunk out of that organizational depth, including the major-league roster.
– Another bullpen guy does not mean a closer, because the best out there are Type A free agents, and the Angels are already paying Brian Fuentes to be a top-flight closer, plus have a potential replacement on hand in Kevin Jepsen.
A year-older Jose Arredondo, plus a healthy return by Scot Shields and Jason Bulger’s continued emergence should indicate the Angels have enough bullpen on hand, especially if the ageless Darren Oliver returns.
In conclusion, this winter likely sees the Angels losing Lackey AND Figgins (but reaping some nice draft picks), more than likely bringing in another DH (or LF), and basically letting home-grown players like Weaver, Wood and Jepsen aspire to roles this reporter believes they can handle.
The Angels don’t need any catchers, center fielders, first basemen, shortstops or right fielders right now. Or four-fifths of a quality major-league rotation. No one else in their division can answer more than three of those six questions, if that many.
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Earl: Could our starter, big bat and reliever be Lackey, Guerrero and Oliver?
Steve, that’s certainly possible, but not likely. I think Lackey’s deal alone would make the team far exceed last season’s payroll.
The Angels desperately need a third lefty reliever. Good thing is that those types aren’t expensive.
Scioscia used to prefer RH relievers with good records against LH hitters, before the Angels got Oliver. Now with Fuentes added to the mix, I don’t think the Angels will sign a LH specialist like Brian Shouse just to have one.
LH hitters batted only .196 against Jason Bulger, I think the Angels would prefer to go that way, rather than spend $1 million plus to bring in a veteran LH reliever to get 30-40 outs in a season.
Kevin Jepsen’s BAA vs. LH hitters was .373 (!) in 2009, and he has to improve upon that, even to be a setup man.
In a perfect world, you’d have a bullpen of relievers who can be equally effective against righties or lefties. Of course, those are rare, and they tend to be closers.
It’s great that Bulger was able to be effective against lefties in 2009, but when playing the matchups, you’d still want a lefty arm to face lefty hitters once Darren Oliver is out of the game and it’s not time for Brian Fuentes yet.
Plus, while Oliver was reasonably effective against hitters from both sides of the plate in 2009, he seems to change every year in that regard.
Then of course, there’s the item of needing to sign Darren Oliver.
Do you think Moreno’s statements about payroll are the full truth or perhaps could be part of the negotiating strategy? If they were ultimately willing to give Lackey $18M/yr, you wouldn’t expect them to say publicly they expect their 2010 payroll to go up, would you?
If you want to increase ticket sales, it’s probably not wise to say the payroll isn’t going to increase very much … unless you’re an honest person. Every indication I have from Arte Moreno indicates the latter is the case.
The Angels could always do something crazy like trade off some of their arbitration-eligible players for prospects, thus creating salary room for Lackey. This would create other holes, so I don’t think it makes sense. I don’t think Lackey would accept arbitration, either, as has been proposed by one columnist. This is his one chance to be the big fish in the small pond.
I wouldn’t mind seeing them go the high risk/reward route with a starting pitcher like Harden or Sheets. Sheets especially is enticing, since hes coming back from an elbow injury (always a better sign than the shoulder), has always dominated when healthy, and doesn’t have a lot of mileage on his shoulder since (obviously) he hasn’t pitched all that much.
I agree on giving a shot to Delgado or Johnson. Johnson’s lack of power this season is being attributed to his wrist surgery. If he regains some of that strength he can be an absolute beast in the middle of the order. Delgado would seem to be a nice fit, as well.
As far as Vlad goes, I can’t help but feel like the team is simply playing lip service to him out of respect. Reagins has shown that he values patient, professional hitters and Vlad obviously does not fit that criteria. His skills have been diminishing every year and I think the organization is simply ready for a change in that role.
I agree that almost no money should be spent on relief pitching this offseason. As Earl stated, we already have a complete bullpen in place, and plenty of other arms in the organization for depth. In general, I think Arte should keep the pocket book closed this offseason. This free agent crop is a weak one, and each of the next two years will see players that are actually worth breaking the bank for.