Orange County Register

Not likely, according to the godfather of stat analysis Bill James.

In the newly-released Hardball Times Baseball Abstract 2010, James offers his list of the players most likely to improve or maintain their performance level from 2009 — and the players least likely to repeat their 2009 performances.

Morales '09 -- .306, 34 HRs, 108 RBI

James explains his ’Strong Season Leading Index’ in part this way:

““Age is the most obvious indicator of likely movement. We also know that players tend to move back to their historical norms, so we look at last year’s on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) compared to his career OPS. We also factor in a player’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP), his strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his speed before distilling all this into a single number that indicates how likely a player is to have a strong season in the coming year.”

On a scale of 38 points, 24 or higher indicates a better than 50 percent chance the player will sustain or improve on his 2009 level of performance. Twenty-three or lower indicates a greater likelihood the player will fail to match his 2009 performance.

James gave Angels first baseman Kendry Morales an 11.

Here is James’ list of the players most likely to sustain or improve in 2010 (with their score in his index):

Martin '09 -- .250, 7 HRs, 53 RBI

Rays C Dioner Navarro (26)

Diamondbacks OF Chris Young (25)

Twins SS J.J. Hardy (25)

Dodgers C Russell Martin (24)

Indians OF Grady Sizemore (24)

Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia (23)

Dodgers 1B James Loney (23)

Rangers 2B Ian Kinsler (23)

Rays OF B.J. Upton (23)

Braves OF Nate McLouth (23)

And here is James’ list of 10 players most likely to fall back in 2010:

Yankees C Jorge Posada (8)

Braves OF Matt Diaz (9)

Free agent IF Craig Counsell (9)

Free agent 1B-DH Russell Branyan (11)

Rays SS Jason Bartlett (11)

Free agent OF Scott Podsednik (11)

Cubs 1B Derrek Lee (11)

Angels 1B Kendry Morales (11)

Mariners OF Ichiro Suzuki (11)

A’s OF Rajai Davis (12)

The Hardball Times Baseball Abstract 2010 can be purchased through Acta Sports at www.actasports.com

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.