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Angels resume Halladay talks
November 24th, 2009, 7:19 am · 33 Comments · posted by Sam Miller, The Orange County Register
Mike DiGiovanna writes that the Angels have resumed their pursuit of Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays ace who is thought to be available in trade. While the Angels may lose John Lackey — the best free agent pitcher on the market — Halladay is considerably better:
- According to Fangraphs, he’s been one of the seven most valuable pitchers in baseball in each of the past four seasons;
- In the past four years, he has averaged 232 innings and a 3.11 ERA. Lackey has averaged 195 innings with a 3.50 ERA.
- In that time, Halladay has allowed 17 more earned runs than Lackey, in 150 extra innings. Basically, he pitched like Lackey, then added another 150 innings with an ERA of 1.02.
Writes DiGiovanna:
“The Angels went hard after Halladay before the July 31 trade deadline last season, but talks broke down when the Angels refused to include shortstop Erick Aybar in their offer. Then-Toronto General Manager J.P. Ricciardi was believed to have asked for a pitcher, either Jered Weaver or Joe Saunders, Aybar and outfield prospect Peter Bourjos.”
Well, that certainly explains why the Angels said no. Aybar and Weaver are both second-tier stars at this point, and they’re each under team control for the next three seasons. Bourjos is a highly regarded defender in center field, so worst case he’s probably a fourth-outfielder under team control for six years. Halladay is a free agent after next year.
Let’s look at it this way:
Halladay will be paid about $15 million this year. He has averaged $33 million of value* the past two seasons, so if he is just as good in 2010, he’ll be an $18 million bargain before he hits free agency again.
Meanwhile, Erick Aybar and Jered Weaver are just entering their arbitration period, which means they will both be way underpaid for three more years.
Aybar will be paid around $2 million or $3 million (he’s up for arbitration**) in 2010, and perhaps $5 million in 2011 and $7 million in 2012. He was worth $17 million in 2009. Even if he regresses midway between his 2008 and 2009 stats, he’d be worth about $12 million per season. That makes him a $21 million bargain over the next three seasons.
And Jered Weaver will be paid around, oh, $4 million in 2010, maybe $7 million in 2011, maybe $10 million in 2012. He was worth $17 million 2009. He has averaged $15 million the past three seasons, so we can probably say he’s a $15 million pitcher. That means that he’s about a $24 million bargain over the next three seasons.
(If you replace Weaver with Saunders — Saunders looks to be perhaps a $6 million to $12 million bargain over the next three years. You’d end up paying for his wins in arbitration, but he’s not the pitcher Weaver is.)
Bourjos is the Angels’ fifth-ranked prospect, according to John Sickels, and he won’t get paid a meaningful salary until at least 2014. But even if we exclude him from this equation, the Angels get trounced in the deal.
We’d all love to see Halladay in an Angels uniform, but Weaver and Aybar would be a huge overpay. So this bit from DiGiovanna — “New Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopolous appears willing to make a deal that does not include Aybar” — is good news for a deal getting done.
* “value” is based on Wins Above Replacement, and a market rate of $4.5 million per win added.
** Salaries after arbitration are just my rough estimations based on what similar players have received.
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If this means that Figgens stays in Anaheim, bravo.
Angels don’t do this deal unless they can negotiate an extension with Halladay. My guess is that he’ll want to see what free agency will bring but he’s got competition for that next year. He’d be an even BETTER pitcher outside the AL East. Imagine routinely facing Oakland and Seattle instead of NY, Boston and Tampa! Make this trade and then get a bat. Then you’re in the elite!
Getting the negotiation window is the point. That’s part of why the Angels balked last year, they weren’t allowed a negotiation window. No team took the trade for that reason.
This stat driven moneyball analysis will get you exactly what the A’s get, slightly better than .500 teams that occasionally make the playoffs but don’t scare anybody. As a top payroll team the Angels need to be focussed on winning in the playoffs. The only way to do that is to acquire the best pitching. In a series against Boston or NY I would much rather have Halladay on the roster than 5 Aybars.
Interesting post. KC had the best pitcher in baseball this year. How’d that work out. SF has had the best pitcher in the NL for the last two years. How’s that worked out. Keep on trading four on the rise players for one starting on the downslope and you’ll be KC and SF pretty quick. F Halladay. Sure he’s good but he’s not worth 4 starters. Stand pat.
AngelsFanMike is right…we’re one Halliday and power hitter away from the big dance, and have been since 2003.
Angels need to find a way to get Gonzalez from SD..He’s the key!!!!
Yeah and while they’re at it, they need to find a way to pry Pujols away from St. Louis and Mauer away from Minnesota. Come on think before you post.
Except the Padres might actually trade Adrian Gonzalez. Not the case with Pujols or Mauer.
Come on, think before you post.
And the Angels currently have a crappy 1B, right? Morales finished 5th in the MVP voting in his first full year. So, we’d trade the farm to fill a spot that is already more than capably filled? Makes sense, but I might want to wait until the crystal meth wears off.
The Padres are morons if they trade Gonzales.
I didn’t say the Angels needed a new 1B. Merely that Adrian Gonzalez has been strongly rumored in trade talks whereas the other two have not.
If the Angels DID decide to make that deal AND retain Kendry, he’d move to the OF.
I don’t understand why we need him. Our lineup does have plenty of punch in it, or am i the only one who remembers how many 20+ HR guys we had and that one of them was 30+? Bringing up Wood and we have another guy who can hit bombs once he gets his stroke going. Pitching pitching pitching. Need to address that and probably our ‘pen.
I would have to agree with elvis on that one…The angels have the pieces to give up in order to acquire halliday….if they arent able to keep figgins they can always look into the free agents..beltre? He has been injured but can still play some d and can still hit. If they can pull a deal for halliday and get a power hitter (beltre) they should be sitting pretty with the trophy
Jason Bay and Halladay this off season would be a coup for Tony. In Tony we trust. Go get them. I am tired of Lackey’s theaterics everytime somebody makes an error behind him. Figgins was ok, but I would like to see a third baseman with a little more punch in the line-up. It is time for Brandon Wood to punch a time clock. He will be an extremely good hitter in a couple of years. Each year now the Angels have integrated a rookie infielder into the mix with much success. Closer may be another position that the Angels want to l@@k at this Christmas as well. Fuentes just doesn’t scare anybody south of the pitcher’s mound. He scares me, but I’m an Angel fan.
i will be willing to send saunders and howie plus a couple of prospects for halladay…bring up wood to play third and move figgins to second…morales will be fine at first and he will get better…the outfield is ok but if bay is available, he can play left and have rivera as the dh/left fielder…
We’d have to re-sign Figgins and that’s not likely to happen for that to work. I’d trade Santana and Izturis as well as a propsect or 2. The guy is in a final contract year. The Angels should have to necessarily give up as much as they would have last year.
Halladay and Bay and a new closer like Betancourt ..we are more than OK! Get r done Arte!!
And you propose to do that for a total of under $20 million, how?
If the Angels really want to trade for a pitcher, they should be looking at 25 year old Josh Johnson instead. He’s younger and cheaper and is definitely an “ace”
Johnson is awesome except he’s still under Florida’s control for a while. They’re not likely to move him until he’s closer to UFA.
Nice posts guys but unfortunately we have a BUDGET or else prepare to take the shaft for tickets and a beer. There’s no way we can afford both Halladay and Bay or Figgins. Our best bet is sending Saunders, Napoli, Wood, one prospect for one of the best pitchers in the game that would instantly give us the edge over Boston or NY in the postseason…he’s an untouchable horse who will own the AL if he pitches in the AL West. The key is EXTENDING his contract before we pull the trigger! I think we need a heavy bat but GREAT piching will shut down GREAT hitting! If we are losing both Lackey and Figgins then DOC HALLADAY is our first priority and then we can find a bat even if we have to sign VLAD to a 1 year deal heavy incentive based (he will still hit .300 / 20-25 hr / 100 rbi’s) not bad!
Our Starting Pitching:
1. Halladay (Cy young) 2. Weaver 3. Kazmir 4. Santana 5. Moseley/Palmer
Our Starting Lineup:
1. Aybar 2. Abreu 3. Hunter 4. Morales 5. Vlad 6. Rivera 7. Kendrick 8. Mathis 9. Izturis
***If we don’t pull the Doc trade then we need to get trade for a power bat like Miguel Cabrera or even Granderson cuz with Granderson we can afford a big pitcher for next offseason.
Why Cabrera? Where would he go?
Why does everyone want to move Morales away from 1B?
I’m still trying to figure out why we need a power bat. I mean we have several of them. What, Kendry, Napoli, and Hunter don’t have power? Abreu isn’t a power threat? Hell, if Rivera can catch his stride he’s a 25-30 HR guy as well. Kendrick will eventually be a 20HR guy. If we bring Vlad back on an incentive laden contract and he stays healthy, he’s good for 20-25 and 80-100. There is a lot of power in the lineup.Let’s concentrate on pitching. Oh and Wood is a potential big time power threat once he gets some real at bats and regular playing time. Under Abreu, he should learn to hit a lot better too. Power power power power and more power. WE HAVE IT ALREADY!!
Oh and where is Izturis playing? He swaps as a backup to SS and 2B. He wont be playing 3rd. If anyone makes that jump to 3rd it’s Aybar because he has the stronger arm. I don’t see him moving there though.
Batting order looks more like this
1. Aybar 2. Abreu 3. Hunter 4. Morales 5. Vlad/Rivera(When Vlad isn’t DHing) 6. Rivera/Napoli(When Vlad isn’t DHing) 7. Kendrick 8. Wood 9. Mathis/Napoli
Halladay at 5 years, 20M per for 100M total is a far superior deal to signing Lackey for 17-18 per year. A trade for Granderson replaces Figgins as the leadoff hitter. Wood moves to third. The Angels also get two first round picks as compensation if they let Lackey go… plus two more for Figgins… that’s a lot of top picks.
I’m a Toronto fan just browsing the forums and curious to know from The Angel fans perspective, what would be an acceptable package for Halladay? (if he also signs an extension)
We hear lots of rumours in Toronto about Weaver OR Saunders + Bourjos. Is Aybar or Izturis off limits? I know Aybar was the deal breaker back at the deadline.
Thoughts about any other type of acceptable packages?
You tell us. We float a lot of names out there, but we don’t really know what the Jays would actually be willing to take. I’m pretty sure that most of the packages Angels fans are suggesting would be real lowball exchanges.
I think Izturis’s value to the team goes up if Figgins leaves since they’re similar in terms of versatility.
I wouldn’t be crazy about dealing Weaver, but if people are that convinced that Boras will screw the Angels when his contract is up, it may be best to deal him. You have to think long term, but it wouldn’t be great for PR, especially since it’d mean Lackey will have (voluntarily) left town also.
People talk about Lackey not being a “true” ace, but there are only so many of those out there, and I’d much rather have talent spread out among a rotation rather than a steep dropoff after number 1.
Paul, it does seem that Aybar is untouchable. Izturis doesn’t fall into that category, but the Jays seem set now a middle IF. We could offer a top young catcher with plenty of power in Napoli. I would have a hard time moving Weaver, but many have pointed out the negative Boras angle with Weaver.
I would go for Saunders, Napoli and Bourjos or another good AA/AAA prospect if I were the Angels. Assuming they could sign Doc long term.
I would go Santana or Saunders/Kendrick or Izturis/and a prospect or 2. Seems Toronto still wants Aybar in a deal from what I’ve read.
I just found out about this Fangraph thing today and I’m already sick of it. Its lame.
Sauders and Bourgeois for Haliday. We should do that in a new York minute.
Yeah but why would Toronto?