Orange County Register

When your own writers are saying you shouldn’t win the Cy Young Award, itt’s probably time for Felix Hernandez to write Zack Greinke a concession speech.

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times – who, last week, definitively explained why the Ken Griffey Jr. contract was a good idea for the Mariners — uses both real stats and abstractions to show that Kansas City’s Greinke should get the nod over Seattle’s Hernandez, and most of the writers agreed. In fact Greinke got 25 first place votes to Hernandez’s two.

Personally I thought Hernandez (left) roared down the stretch like Zenyatta and might have nipped Greinke at the wire. Unfortunately it sounds as if some voters made up their minds in June and didn’t at least consider Hernandez’s incredibly fast finish before they voted for Greinke.

Meanwhile, I had the National League MVP ballot. Hmmmm…..

The Mariners and Ken Griffey, Jr. agreed to a one-year deal for something like $3 million, Seattle Times reports. Griffey has 600 plate appearances since he was traded back to the American League in 2008, and he’s hitting .226/.329/.409 in that time. That batting line is pretty exciting for a 21-year-old shortstop with excellent defense, but for a 40-year-old DH it’s a waste of a roster spot. And something like $3 million.

The Mariners will undoubtedly acquire some talent this offseason — they cleared a lot of money — but just compare the roster they have now to the one that won 85 games and somewhat surprisingly challenged the Angels into August:

• No Erik Bedard (83 innings of 2.82 ERA)
• No Jarrod Washburn (133 innings of 2.64 ERA)
• No Adrian Beltre (2.4 wins better than replacement, thanks to his defense)
• No Russell Branyan (2.8 wins above replacement)

They also don’t have a real option at catcher, or in left field, and they have to work out a deal to bring back Jack Wilson at shortstop. That’s a lot to replace, just to keep up with a 2009 roster that was outscored by 60 runs. Maybe Seattle is realistic and realizes it’s not going to be able to replace it all this offseason, and that the Mariners aren’t likely to win 85 games — let alone 97 — in 2010. Maybe signing Griffey is simply admitting that fact, and giving fans a different reason — Nostalgia? Werther’s Originals? — to  come out to the park.

Also: U.S.S. Mariner notes that this likely leaves Ryan Langerhans — the better player — off Seattle’s roster.

After 88 wins in 2007, the Mariners had (unreasonably) high hopes for 2008. After 61 wins in 2008, the general public had (perhaps reasonably) low expectations for them in 2009. PECOTA saw them winning 77 games, CHONE predicted 78, and none of ESPN’s two dozen experts predicted they would win the West or the Wild Card. But a lost season became surprisingly informative, as the Mariners are likely to finish with a winning record, had a one-in-four chance of making the playoffs as late as July 20, and could easily win more games than the contending Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.

What went right:

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